In 2 Charts, You'll Understand Why This Week's Fed Meeting Is The Most Hotly Anticipated One In A Long Time

The Federal Reserve's next meeting is this week.

It's a 2-day meeting that concludes on Wednesday, and it's safe to say that it's the most anticipated such meeting in a long time.

Two charts help to convey this.

One is simply a search of the financial news headlines for the word "tapering" which refers to the notion that the Fed will start buying fewer bonds each month as part of its QE program.

Business Insider/Matthew Boesler, data from Bloomberg

Mentions of tapering (red line) have exploded since the start of May, reflecting the growing chatter of this possibility.

There's virtually no way the Fed announces anything official on this front, but any hint that it gives about what it's thinking with regard to the future of QE will be watched closely.

Now on the real economic front, the big story in global markets has been the turn in interest rates.

Whether it's real interest rates, nominal US Treasury rates, or mortgages, there's been a sharp turn up since the start of May.

Rates are still low by historical standards, but this sharp turn represents a break from post-crisis trends.

The question is whether this is a head fake or if this is really "the big one" so to speak. What the Fed says about its future actions and its forecast for the state of the economy will help answer this question.

FRED

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35 Years Of Failed Economic Forecasts In One Chart

John Mauldin takes down the business of economic forecasting in his new weekly letter.

"If you look at the history of the last three recessions in the United States, you will see that the inability of economists and central bankers to understand the state of the economy was so bad that you might be tempted to say they couldn't find their derrieres with both hands," wrote Mauldin. "Economists have yet to correctly call a recession."

For those who don't have time to read Mauldin's lengthy letter, there's one chart that sums up his thesis nicely. It comes from Societe Generale, and it shows economists' consensus forecasts for GDP growth.  As you can see, it never goes negative during this 35 year span.

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10 Things You Need To Know This Morning (DIA, SPY, QQQ, SFD, AAPL)

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Student protesters react as police spray foam to extinguish burning tires during a demonstration against the government's plans to raise fuel price, outside the parliament in Jakarta June 17, 2013.

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

Markets in Asia were higher in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose 2.7% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng advanced 1.2%. European markets are higher across the board, led by France, up 1.7%. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.The big story for markets this week will be the Federal Reserve's FOMC monetary policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday and is followed by an afternoon press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke. Many expect the FOMC to strike a dovish tone after bonds have sold off aggressively due to fears over tapering back of monetary stimulus.Heads of state are gathered at a G8 summit in Northern Ireland today to discuss, among other things, a transatlantic trade deal between the U.S. and the E.U. Negotiations are expected to launch this afternoon with a press conference, but the mood is tense after France won an exclusion for the French film industry from the deal on Friday, despite the objection of the U.S.According to new data from Eurostat, the E.U. trade surplus narrowed to 9.2 billion euros in April from 15.9 billion euros in March. The E.U. trade surplus with the U.S. rose to 22.3 billion euros in the first quarter, while its trade deficit with China declined to 33.6 billion euros.Credit rating agency Fitch is out with a report calling China's credit bubble unprecedented in modern world history. "The credit-driven growth model is clearly falling apart. This could feed into a massive over-capacity problem, and potentially into a Japanese-style deflation," said Fitch's Charlene Chu.Protesters took to the streets in Indonesia and engaged with police ahead of a parliamentary vote to slash government fuel subsidies, forcing a hike in gasoline prices. More than 18,000 police officers were deployed in Jakarta to curb the protests.WSJ reports that Starboard Value LP, an investment fund that holds a 5.7% stake in Smithfield Foods, will deliver a letter Monday urging the board of directors to split up the company as opposed to accepting an offer from Chinese firm Shuanghui International Holdings. The $4.7 billion deal, if it goes through, would be the biggest ever takeover of a U.S. company by a Chinese company.Apple disclosed that it received requests for data on around 10,000 user accounts from the U.S. government. The company said in a statement that it had asked the government if it could disclose the number and said it was "providing it here in the interest of transparency."The Empire State Manufacturing Survey beat expectations, coming in at +7.84 vs 0.0.NAHB's monthly gauge of homebuilder sentiment is released at 10 AM. Economists expect the index will advance to 45 from last month's 44 reading. Follow all of the data LIVE on Business Insider > Follow 10 Things Before the Opening Bell and never miss an update! Get updates in your Facebooknews feed.

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Protests erupt in Indonesia, two important data releases, and all eyes on Bernanke this week.

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