Sunday, October 20, 2013

JEFF SAUT: This Is A Big Deal — A Major Second Half Risk Was Just Taken Off The Table (SPY, DIA)

Moments ago, the Treasury Department issued a statement saying that the White House would delay until 2015 the enforcement of the requirement for business to provide workers with health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, aka "Obamacare."

Jeff Saut, the top strategist at Raymond James, just blasted an email that read: "This is a big deal. A major 2H risk off the table..."

Under the ACA, businesses employing 50 or more workers would have to offer health insurance or pay a penalty of $2,000 per worker.

Some economists noted that a reduction in "hours worked" in some industries was a sign that employers were reducing hours intentionally to dodge this cost.

Market strategists have warned that the ACA would hit the corporate bottom line, whether it be through higher health care costs or penalties.

For now, it seems that cost will be delayed.

It will be interesting to see how the market will react.


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JPMorgan Put Together The Ultimate Guide To The Market Right Now

JP Morgan Funds Q3 Guide To The Markets JP Morgan Funds

The second quarter ended with stocks tumbling, interest rates surging, and gold crashing.  All of this happened as the Federal Reserve laid out a timeline for the tapering, or gradual reduction of its stimulative bond-buying program.

Investors have a lot of things to consider before they make their next move.

To help with this, David Kelly and the market strategy team at J.P. Morgan Asset Management have built the best presentation on the state of the markets and the economy we have seen so far.

We learn that the stock markets look strong yet reasonably priced, the bond markets are rapidly evolving as rates rise, the U.S. economy is anemic yet recovering, Europe remains a mess but things are getting better, and China is growing quickly but decelerating.

The charts offer an elegant and in-depth look at everything.

Jump to different sections of the presentation:

Note: Thanks to J.P. Morgan Asset Management for giving us permission to feature this presentation.


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Wall Street Is Pretty Sure That Earnings Season Will Be Crappy

It's that time again when everyone prepares for earnings season, the time of year when corporations publish their quarterly financial results.

In recent years, analysts and strategists across Wall Street have warned us that the next quarter at the time would be the ugly one that could break the back of the bull market.

However, they've been repeatedly proven wrong, and the stock markets have only charged higher.

But will it be different this time?

Well, the signs aren't looking too bullish.

Weeks before aluminum giant Alcoa unofficially kicks off earnings season, we hear from the "early reporters," or the companies whose quarter ends in May (rather than June for most companies).

"21 May quarter end companies reported 2Q results, 62% beat consensus EPS w/ a 1.7% surprise in aggregate," wrote Deutsche Bank's David Bianco in a note to clients this week.  "The surprise was slightly below the last few quarters. Aggregate y/y EPS growth was 7.9% and 5.8% for revenue; this would be healthy S&P growth, but early reporters normally exceed the S&P."

Here's a round up of the early reporters:

earnings Deutsche Bank

Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker are among the analysts who believe Wall Street is currently too optimistic about corporate earnings.

"Downward earnings revisions have persisted in recent months with 7 of 10 GICS sectors seeing lower estimates over the last 3 months, and we continue to believe estimates have further to fall," said Parker. "Analysts are embedding 7% earnings growth in 2013 to $111 per share, followed by 11% growth in 2014 to $123 per share. Our top-down estimates are more muted— $103 and $110 of earnings per share in 2013 and 2014, respectively."

Like Parker, Citi's Tobias Levkovich has been pointing to the surge in negative preannouncements relative to positive preannouncements.

"[W]e have been a tad shocked by the surge in negative-to-positive preannouncement trends that make 2009’s surge appear less worrisome in retrospect," said Levkovich. "Upward earnings guidance has dipped as well and there has been little consternation or discussion about it."

Alcoa announces its second quarter earnings on July 8.


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12 Things That You Can Do That Are Guaranteed To Annoy Logical People

Logical people are incredibly easy to irritate. They think and approach problems a particular way, and get flustered when others do the opposite.  

Felix Salmon pointed out a recent thread on Quora that asked 'what are some good ways to annoy extremely logical people?'

Here are some of the best answers.

Quora user Michael Wolfe gives an example of some other things that infuriate logical people, an appeal to emotions, referring to "nature" and a touch of conspiracy, via the example of the anti-vaccination movement: 

"My intuition just tells me that vaccines are bad for you. Native people have lived just fine for centuries without putting "toxins" in their bodies -- they are more in tune with nature. I also have a friend whose son became autistic after he was vaccinated. The doctor said it wasn't the reason why, but he has a typical western medicine mindset and must be taking money from the vaccine companies. I don't want to argue about it - it makes me so angry!"

From Quora user Catherine Goodman, an artist who grow up around science majors: "Know things without consciously learning them. Spout out information without having any idea where you gleaned it from. That one really makes 'em squirm." 

Quora user Joey Frey suggested trying the tips from Arthur Schopenhauer's essay, "38 Ways To Win An Argument." Anyone who's watched a debate or pundits on TV knows that facts and logic don't often win an argument. 

Here's one of Schopenhauer's 38 suggestions:

"Carry your opponent's proposition beyond its natural limits; exaggerate it. The more general your opponent's statement becomes, the more objections you can find against it. The more restricted and narrow his or her propositions remain, the easier they are to defend by him or her."

Jason Baker provides a particularly grating example, when people say something like "didn't Turing prove this decades ago?"for something that has little or nothing to do with computer science. 

Also from Wolfe. This is one of the most common errors that drives logical people crazy. Just because two things happen at the same time does not mean that one causes the other.   

Via Michael Wolfe. This is linked to correlation vs. causation. Just because something happened to you or a friend or a friend of a friend does not make it a universal truth. 

Andrew Boysen: "Be the 20th person to reply-all to a mailing list message, asking people to not reply-all and/or to remove you from the mailing list that only you can remove yourself from."

#8 Misuse terms or badly cite logical fallacies in an effort to prove a point. 

People love to accuse people of "begging the question." They're usually using it wrong.

Via Justin Liu:
"The phrase is now used pervasively to mean something like, "What you're saying leads to the obvious next question . . ." This is not its original (and I would say accurate) meaning. In fact, question begging refers to a logical fallacy where a premise assumes the proposition to be proved. For example the following argument begs the question: Raising taxes is wrong because it makes people pay more money in taxes."Use terms that are ambiguous and hard to nail down

Via Quora user Paul Clarke: "The best way is to use loosely-defined terms in questions. See 'good' and 'logical people' as examples in the question above.

An example would be "Loch Ness contains a giant reptile." All you'll ever find is an absence of evidence, so it's impossible to disprove to a true believer. "Bonus points for stating that the logical person is wrong because they can't falsify your unfalsifiable claim," Quora user Sean Rose writes.

Even the thread's author is not exempt. Via Quora user Nicholas Chavez:  

"Using an adverb like "extremely" as an accelerating modifier to an adjective such as "logical" when "logic" is a binary trait best categorized as a noun."

 

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The Abenomics Trade Is Working Again

Things have really calmed down in markets, and part of that is Japan is seeing its stock market rally, and the yen weaken.

The Nikkei crossed above 14,000 last night on the back of 1 .8% gain.

And Nikkei futures are still rallying today.

Meanwhile, the yen continues to weaken, as USDJPY goes above 100.


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Tesla Versus The Rent Seekers: The Battle That Sums Up 2013

This post originally appeared on SteveBlank.com.

The greatest number of jobs is created when startups create a new market – one where the product or service never existed before or is radically more convenient. Yet this is where startups will run into anti-innovation opponents they may not expect. These opponents have their own name –  “rent seekers” – the landlords of the status-quo.

Smart startups prepare to face off against rent seekers and map out creative strategies for doing so…. First, however, they need to understand what a rent seeker is and how they operate

———-

Recently, the New York and North Carolina legislatures considered a new law written by Auto Dealer lobbyists that would make it illegal for Tesla to sell cars directly to consumers. This got me thinking about the legal obstacles that face innovators with new business models.Examples of startups challenging the status quo  include: Lyft, Square, Uber, Airbnb, SpaceX, Zillow, Bitcoin, LegalZoom, food trucks, charter schools and massively open online courses. Past examples of startups that succeeded in redefining current industries include Craigslist, Netflix, Amazon, EbayandPaypal

While Tesla, Lyft, Uber, Airbnb, et al are in very different industries, they have two things in common: 1) they’re disruptive business models creating new markets and upsetting the status quo and 2) the legal obstacles confronting them weren’t from direct competitors, but from groups commonly referred to as “rent seekers.”

Rent Seekers
Rent seekers are individuals or organizations that have succeeded with existing business models and look to the government and regulators as their first line of defense against innovative competition. They use government regulation and lawsuits to keep out new entrants with more innovative business models. They use every argument from public safety to lack of quality or loss of jobs to lobby against the new entrants. Rent seekers spend money to increase their share of an existing market instead of creating new products or markets. The key idea is that rent seeking behavior creates nothing of value.

These barriers to new innovative entrants are called economic rent. Examples of economic rent include state automobile franchise laws, taxi medallion laws, limits on charter schools, auto, steel or sugar tariffs, patent trolls, bribery of government officials, corruption and regulatory capture. They’re all part of the same pattern – they add no value to the economy and prevent innovation from reaching the consumer.

No regulation?
Not all government regulation is rent or rent seeking. Not all economic rents are bad. Patents for example, provide protection for a limited time only, to allow businesses to recoup R&D expenses as well as make a profit that would often not be possible if completely free competition were allowed immediately upon a products’ release. Butpatent trolls emerged as rent seekers by using patents as legalized extortion of companies.

How do Rent Seekers win?
Instead of offering better products or better service at lower prices, rent seekers hire lawyers and lobbyists to influence politicians and regulators to pass laws, write regulations and collect taxes that block competition. The process of getting the government to give out these favors is rent-seeking.

Rent seeking lobbyists go directly to legislative bodies (Congress, State Legislatures, City Councils) to persuade government officials to enact laws and regulations in exchange for campaign contributions, appeasing influential voting blocks or future jobs in the regulated industry. They also use the courts to tie up and exhaust a startupslimited financial resources.

Lobbyists also work through regulatory bodies like FCC, SEC, FTC, Public Utility, Taxi, or Insurance Commissions, School Boards, etc.   Although most regulatory bodies are initially set up to protect the public’s health and safety, or to provide an equal playing field, over time the very people they’re supposed to regulate capture the regulatory agencies. Rent Seekers take advantage of regulatory capture to protect their interests against the new innovators.

PayPal – Dodging Bullets
PayPal consistently walked a fine line with regulators. Early on the company shutdown their commercial banking operation to avoid being labeled as a commercial bank andburdened by banks’ federal regulations. PayPal worried that complying with state-by-state laws for money transmission would also be too burdensome for a startup so they first tried to be classified as a chartered trust company to provide a benign regulatory cover, but failed. As the company grew larger, incumbent banks forced PayPal to register in each state. The banks lobbied regulators in Louisiana, New York, California, and Idaho and soon they were issuing injunctions forcing PayPal to delay their IPO. Ironically, once PayPal complied with state regulations by registering as a “money transmitter” on a state-by-state basis, it created a barrier to entry for future new entrants.

U.S. Auto Makers – Death by Rent Seeking
The U.S. auto industry is a textbook case of rent seeking behavior. In 1981 unable to compete with the quality and price of Japanese cars, the domestic car companies convinced the U.S. government to restrict the import of  “foreign” cars. The result? Americans paid an extra $5 billion for cars. Japan overcame these barriers by using their import quotas to ship high-end, high-margin luxury cars, establishing manufacturing plants in the U.S. for high-volume lower cost cars and by continuing to innovate. In contrast, U.S. car manufacturers raised prices, pocketed the profits, bought off the unions with unsustainable contracts, ran inefficient factories and stopped innovating. The bill came due two decades later as the American auto industry spiraled into bankruptcy and its market share plummeted from 75% in 1981 to 45% in 2012.

Innovation in the Auto Industry
According to the Gallup Poll American consumers viewcar salesman as dead last in honesty and ethics. Yet when Tesla provided consumers with a direct sales alternative, the rent seekers – the National Auto Dealers Association turned its lobbyists loose on State Legislatures robbing consumers in North Carolina, New York and Texas of choice in the marketplace.

In these states it appears innovation be damned if it gets in the way of a rent seeker with a good lobbyist.

Much like Paypal, it’s likely that after forcing Tesla to win these state-by-state battles, the auto dealers will have found that they dealt themselves the losing hand.

Rent seeking is bad for the economy
Rent seeking strangles innovation in its crib. When companies are protected from competition, they have little incentive to cut costs or to pay attention to changing customer needs. The resources invested in rent seeking are a form of economic waste and reduce the wealth of the overall economy.

Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction - that entry by entrepreneurs was the disruptive force that sustained economic growth even as it destroyed the value of established companies – didn’t take into account that countries with lots of rent-seeking activity (pick your favorite nation where bribes and corruption are the cost of doing business) or dominated by organized interest groups tend to be the economic losers. As rent-seeking becomes more attractive than innovation, the economy falls into decline.

Startups, investors and the public have done a poor job of calling out the politicians and regulators who use the words “innovation means jobs” while supporting rent seekers.

What does this mean for startups?
In an existing market it’s clear who your competitors are. You compete for customers on performance, ease of use, or price. However, for startups creating a new market – one where either the product or service never existed before or the new option is radically more convenient for customers -  the idea that rent seekers even exist may come as a shock. “Why would anyone not want a better x, y or z?” The answer is that if your startup threatens their jobs or profits, it doesn’t matter how much better life will be for consumers, students, etc. Well organized incumbents will fight if they perceive a threat to the status quo.

As a result disrupting the status quo in regulated market can be costly. On the other hand, being a private and small startup means you have less to lose when you challenge the incumbents.

If you’re a startup with a disruptive business model here’s what you need to do:

Map the order of battle

Laughing at the dinosaurs and saying, “They don’t get it” may put you out of business. Expect that existing organizations will defend their turf ferociously i.e. movie studios, telecom providers, teachers unions, etc.Understand who has political and regulator influence and where they operateFigure out an “under the radar” strategy which doesn’t attract incumbents lawsuits, regulations or laws when you have limited resources to fight back

Pick early markets where the rent seekers are weakest and scale

For example, pick target markets with no national or state lobbying influence. i.e. Craigslist versus newspapers, Netflix versus video rental chains, Amazon versus bookstores, etc.Go after rapid scale of passionate consumers who value the disruption i.e. Uber and Airbnb, TeslaAlly with some larger partners who see you as a way to break the incumbents lock on the market. i.e. Palantir and the intelligence agencies versus the Armyand IBM’s i2, / Textron Systems Overwatch

AirBnb – Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead
For example, Airbnb, thrives even though almost all of its “hosts” are not paying local motel/hotel taxes nor paying tax on their income, and many hosts are violating local zoning laws. Some investors and competitors may be concerned about regulatory risk and liability.  AirBNB’s attitude seems to be “build the business until someone stops me, and change or comply with regulations later.”  This is the same approach that allowed Amazon to ignore local sales taxes for the last two decades.

When you get customer scale and raise a large financing round, take the battle to the incumbents. Strategies at this stage include:

Hire your own lobbyistsBegin to build your own influence and political action groupsPublicly shame the incumbents as rent seekersUse competition among governments to your advantage, eg, if  New York or North Carolina doesn’t want Tesla, put the store in New Jersey, across the river from Manhattan, increasing New Jersey’s tax revenueCut deals with the rent seekers. i.e. revenue/profit sharing, two-tier hiring, etc.Buy them out i.e. guaranteed lifetime employment

Lessons Learned

Rent seekers are organizations that have lost the ability to innovateThey look to the government to provide their defense against innovationMap the order of battlePick early markets and scaleWith cash, take the battle to the incumbent

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