Tuesday, October 22, 2013

ANALYST: We Have A 'Bart Simpson' Formation In The Stock Market

Stocks started the day in the red, surged, moved sideways for a while, and then tumbled on no obvious news.

So what happened?

Stifel Nicolaus' Dave Lutz has three reasons for what he has dubbed the "Bart Simpson" formation.

Some "derisking" going on the tape today (and somewhat tomorrow) due to the holiday crimping liquidityThe potential downgrades of the three largest custodian banks shouldn't be dismissed (BNY Mellon, Northern Trust, State Street may be cut by Moody's)Egypt getting worse. Shouldn't be a a massive factors, but a reason to derisk.

Here's a look at the move in the S&P 500 via Bloomberg with some color modifications:


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STOCKS RALLIED THEN FELL: Here's What You Need To Know (DIA, SPY, QQQ)

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It was a pretty quiet day.  The stock market spent most of the day in the green.  And then turned south.

First, the scoreboard:

Dow: 14,932.4, -42.5, -0.2%S&P 500: 1,614.0, -0.8, -0.0%NASDAQ: 3,433.4, -1.0, -0.0%

And now, the top stories:

Like we said, it was a quiet day for data.  Everyone's waiting for the jobs report on Friday and the start of earnings season on Monday.  Everyone else is probably on vacation on this holiday shortened week.The market actually surged at the open, then went sideways, and then dropped.  Stifel Nicolaus' Dave Lutz dubbed it the "Bart Simpson" formation.  He had three reasons: 1) "derisking" ahead of the holiday, 2) the potential downgrades of the big custodian banks (Lutz said BNY Mellon, Northern Trust,  and State Street may be cut by Moody's), and 3) the deteriorating situation in Egypt.The big automakers announced their June sales figures and for the most part it was good. GM and Ford said their U.S. vehicle sales climbed by 6.5% and 13%, respectively. Chrysler sales grew by 8.2%, which was in line with expectations.In other auto news, Tesla's White House petition to allow direct sales is on the brink of getting 100,000 signatures, at which point the White House would have to respond.  The stock closed modestly positive today, but it has been on a tear lately.  It surged 9% yesterday.Aluminum giant Alcoa unofficially kicks of earnings season on Monday. However, based on the companies that have already announced their quarterly results, things aren't looking too good. "21 May quarter end companies reported 2Q results, 62% beat consensus EPS w/ a 1.7% surprise in aggregate," wrote Deutsche Bank's David Bianco in a note to clients this week.  "The surprise was slightly below the last few quarters. Aggregate y/y EPS growth was 7.9% and 5.8% for revenue; this would be healthy S&P growth, but early reporters normally exceed the S&P."Don't Miss: JPMorgan Put Together The Ultimate Guide To The Market Right Now » Follow Closing Bell and never miss an update! Get updates in your Facebooknews feed.

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