Japan Is Rallying After The Jobs Report

The Japanese stock market has been tanking since May 22.

In the past few days, losses have slowed a bit – Friday, it closed down only 0.2%.

However, we witnessed a big unwind in the long U.S. dollar/short Japanese yen trade yesterday, with the currency pair falling below ¥95.54 overnight from levels around ¥99.46 just a day before.

Following the release of today's jobs report in the U.S. – which came in better than expected – the dollar initially tanked against the yen, making a new low of ¥94.98.

However, the losses were short-lived, and the dollar is now trading around ¥96.85 to the yen versus levels around ¥95.66 just prior to the release.

Meanwhile, Nikkei futures are spiking and are now up 0.3% from the previous close after being down prior to the report.

Click here for all the details of today's jobs release >

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Yesterday's Huge Chinese Interest Rate Spike Has People Freaked Out About A Looming Credit Crisis (FXI, EWH)

Chinese interbank rates surged ahead of the three-day Dragon Boat festival next week. 

The overnight Shibor, or the Shanghai interbank offered rate, surged to 8.29% on June 7, from 5.98% on June 6. The seven-day Shibor rose to 6.66%, from 5.14%.

This is an interest rate used among banks, and it's considered a useful proxy for liquidity in the Chinese credit markets.

What could have caused the spike in Shibor?

First, Demand for cash rises ahead of Chinese holidays like the Dragon-boat festival, New Year holiday, Golden week holiday.

Second, Bank of America's Ting Lu doesn't think this doesn't suggest major problems with the financial system. "In our view, most likely the PBoC failed to anticipate and then failed to respond swiftly to a sudden fall of liquidity supply and seasonal rise of liquidity demand," he writes.

Third, Lu argues that interbank liquidity was squeezed on account of a decline in speculative activities after the government tightened FX curbs. He also cites two other key reasons.

Fourth, one off demand for U.S. dollar, because of State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE's) regulations on foreign exchange inflows and banks’ Forex position management.

Fifth, it could be because of the crackdown on illegal bond trading. " But because it’s not banned for the banks to trade bond between its different accounts, banks may have to find trade counterparties in the interbank market and frictions could arise resulting in rate volatilities."

Lombard Street Research

What are the implications?

Diana Choyleva at Lombard Street Research thinks this is symptomatic of a bigger problem.

She argues that China's current account surplus fell to 2.6% of GDP in 2012, down from 10% in 2007 and that "this means that capital flows have become a more important driver of domestic liquidity conditions in China’s managed exchange rate system." In fact, she expects China to see more capital outflows than inflows.

If Beijing decides to go for another stimulus, which analysts say is highly unlikely, Choyleva writes that the economy will see "inflation and bubbles rather than sustainable growth" and this could cause capital and current account outflows. 

And if it tries to ease capital controls further and opens up the capital account fully, "outflows in search of higher return amid weaker and more volatile Chinese growth are likely to outweigh inflows."

Bank of America's Ting Lu however doesn't think that this Shibor spike and liquidity squeeze doesn't suggest major problems with the financial system. "In our view, most likely the PBoC failed to anticipate and then failed to respond swiftly to a sudden fall of liquidity supply and seasonal rise of liquidity demand," he writes.

The central bank injected 160 billion yuan into the system this week but he thinks it is unlikely that they will continue multiple open market operations to inject liquidity next week if the Shibor stays high.

Lu and Choyleva also differ on how the central bank might react. Lu doesn't think reserve requirement ratio cuts are likely, because they don't want to "send policy easing signals." Choyleva thinks liquidity pressures could well force their hand. She also thinks they could raise deposit rates.

Societe Generale's Wei Yao has already warned that China is approaching it's Minsky moment.

While some argue that the government controls the state-owned banks and could intervene in case of severe stress, she does think, "the emergence of such stress tells us a lot about the state of the economy and the banks and the likely outcomes for asset markets.

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George Soros Is Going Back Into Japanese Stocks

REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

After selling off a load of his position in Japanese equities last month, George Soros is buying them up again, the WSJ reports.

Unless you've been under a rock for the past few weeks, you noticed the serious selloff in Japanese stocks. The Nikkei has lost 21% since its intraday peak on May 23rd and now the Abe government is pushing for Japan's institutional investors to jump back in the action.

Soros' money will definitely help Abe out. The hedge fund manager runs $24 billion of his own money and made $1 billion from positions in the Japanese yen and Japanese stocks earlier this year.

A person familiar with the situation told WSJ that Soros is buying up everything from big blue chip Japanese companies to mid-cap growth stocks.

So consider that.

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Portfolio Managers Are Asking Themselves One Question After Recent Trading

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The One Question Portfolio Managers Are Asking Themselves After Recent Trading (Dow Theory Forecasts)

From Richard Moroney: "If a mere one-half percentage point increase in bond yields can have so much impact — halting the broad stock market’s advance and triggering considerable tumult in high-yield stocks and aggressive bonds — what’s going to happen when yields return to more normalized levels?

That is what a lot of portfolio managers are asking themselves after the last few weeks of trading, which have seen a rotation out of defensive dividend payers morph into a broader decline. Shares of companies highly sensitive to interest rates, including homebuilders and real estate investment trusts, have been hit especially hard. But most stocks have moved lower since May 22, when the advance-decline line for S&P 1500 stocks peaked."

One Wall Street Ritual Hasn't Changed In Decades (ConvergEx Group)

Wall Street has changed a lot in the last few decades writes Nick Colas,  chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, but "one ritual" has stayed the same. After meeting with sector analysts and strategists early in the day, salespeople get on the phone with clients about the firm's investment viewpoint. 

"The reality is somewhat sloppier.  Analysts give their perspectives, yes, on the investment merits of the public companies under their coverage.  But the most likely question from the sales staff is either “Why isn’t everything you just said already in the stock?” or “What are the 24 words I can say on the off chance I actually get a client on the phone?”  And every salesperson serves accounts with a wide variety of investment perspectives.  What the guy covering hedge funds needs from an analyst call is very different from the gal covering long-only mutual funds.

"As a result, the same analyst morning call gets transmitted in very different ways.  It might start as an upbeat reiteration of a “Buy” recommendation with some color about the current quarter that the analyst believes will be a penny below consensus.  The hedgie salesman will call every account saying “My guy/gal says that this company is going to miss.  Short the stock.”   The mutual fund saleswoman will go out with “Gotta buy this name if/when it pukes on the quarter.”  Old school Wall Street salespeople call this a “New York sell, Boston buy” call."

The State Of The Four Official Recession Indicators (Advisor Perspectives)

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee looks closely at four indicators industrial production, real personal income, nonfarm employment, and real retail sales. Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives pulls each of the indicators into separate charts to see the decline in each indicator since 2006.

Advisor Perspectives

Small Advisory Firm Needs To Hire More People To Manage Client's Powerball Winnings (Investment News)

Madden Advisory Services, the investment advisor that calls Gloria Mackenzie a client, is a four-person firm with about $203 million in assets. Investment News reports that it could see its assets under management double since McKenzie won the $590 million Powerball Lottery. She was left with $270 million after taxes. Harry Madden who founded Madden Advisory said that they would be hiring more staff and space to meet the Powerball winner's needs.

Investing In International Bond Funds Could Be A 'Double-Edged Sword' (The Wall Street Journal)

The Vanguard Group has forayed into global bond funds, and this could prompt mainstream investors to venture into global debt as well. But advisors are telling the Wall Street Journal that this could be a "double-edged sword."

While overseas debt might be more attractive for investors chasing yield, Greg Peterson, research director at Ballentine Partners told the WSJ that they will also have to take on a lot more risk. This is because of differences in law, current account balances, volatility in Forex markets that could all impact foreign bond funds. While some think the extra yield makes up for the risks, others think investors should be cautious, especially if central banks start reducing their quantitative easing programs.

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All Signs Suggest This Is The End Of The Stock Market Rally

The recent return of high volatility to the stock market, bond market and currencies suggest the end of the rally that started in November and probably to the upsurge since the March 2009 bottom.  As we stated in last week’s comment the market now appears to be entering a lose-lose situation where economic growth is bad since it forces the Fed to “taper’ its bond buying program, a move that investors, as they have most emphatically demonstrated this week, do not like one bit.  On the other hand, if the economy continues its tepid pace (or worse), as we think it will, employment won’t meet the Fed’s goals and earnings will take a dive.  In the latter case, the Fed would likely delay tapering of its bond-buying program and investors will interpret bad news on the economy for what it is----bad news.

In comments over the last two months we have shown how various important sectors of the economy have either been slowing down or failing to meet expectations, a condition that has indicated no signs of reversing.  The four-week moving average of new weekly unemployment claims has moved from 338,000 to 353,000 over the past month.  The ADP employment report for May came in far under expectations, and has averaged 124,000 over the last two months compared to 203,000 over the prior five.  The majority of Fed regional surveys have showed weaker hiring in May than in April.  The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) recently reported reduced hiring in May. 

The ISM manufacturing index of 49 for May was the lowest since June 2009, when the recovery was only getting underway.  That number was even worse than it looked since new orders plunged 3.5 points while inventories rose.  The ISM non-manufacturing index for May was down from a year earlier, and has not recorded a monthly increase since December.  Moreover, its employment index component dropped from 52 to 50.1, its fourth consecutive decline. Consumer expenditures for April declined 0.2% and disposable income 0.1%.  Compared to a year-earlier, real consumer spending is up a paltry 2.1% and real disposable income only 1%.  Even then, consumers were able to maintain this inadequate rate of spending only by reducing their savings rate to 2.5%.  Notably, the savings rate was under 3% in each of the first four months of the year, whereas prior to this year the rate had not been under 3% for any month since December 2007, the peak of the economic cycle.

Real GDP has increased only 1.8% over the last four reported quarters, within a range that has been in force since the first quarter of 2010.  The current quarter is shaping up as no better.  Manufacturing production has declined for the last two months and three of the last four.  Even vehicle sales, which recovered strongly from the recession bottom, have now flattened out for the last six months.  The Chicago Fed national activity index, which covers a broad swath of the economy, showed deterioration in growth in April, and has been negative in three of last four months.

Although there is a lot of talk about a stronger economic recovery, the facts, as outlined above, indicate otherwise.  Furthermore, the effects of the sequester, which started very slowly, are starting to become more evident in slowing wage growth and reduced hours.  The original estimates of a 1.5% drag in GDP growth from the tax increase and sequester still appear to be valid and will likely be felt in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.  We therefore think that the overly optimistic earnings forecasts for the rest of year will be highly disappointing.  Although 1st quarter earnings slightly beat the consensus, revenues were flat, and corporations will find it exceedingly difficult to increase earnings with no help from revenues, which are likely to remain under pressure.

In addition, global growth is slowing with much of Europe in recession, China coming in short of expectations and emerging markets weakening.  We have continually pointed out that following a huge buildup of consumer debt it would be difficult to generate a normal recovery in either the U.S. or the rest of the world, and there is little that governments can do other than to choose between undergoing a major crisis or to endure prolonged sluggish growth.  Four years after the recession bottom, we see no reason to change this view.

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25 Reasons Why Chicago Is The Most Underrated City In America

25 Reasons Why Chicago Is The Best City In America For Young Professionals - Business Insider Login   Login Username Password Remember me

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After we published our piece on what's wrong with Chicago, Chicagoan Cody Kittle, an associate at PE firm Wind Point Partners, sent us the following response:

Chicago no doubt has some big issues, as was illustrated by 25 Facts that Make Chicago the Most Depressing Big City in America and Author Rachel Shteir’s recent harangue in the New York Times Book Review.  Shteir’s review reads like she is surreptitiously seeking to settle a score from a “NY vs. Chicago” cocktail party conversation gone awry under the purview of a book review (it may take more than one read to realize, but she wrote a book review).  Shteir’s review comes off as bizarrely personal for commentary on something like the history of a city; herself admitting that Chicagoans' pride has “bugged me since I moved here from New York 13 years ago”. 

What is unfortunate about Shtier’s piece is that she presents a handful of anecdotes and cherry picked statistics from a 60 year period as sufficient in justifying Chicago as a “poor” city worthy of pity. 

In doing so she misses a very critical point: that the quality of life for the average person who has the option to choose what city they are in, i.e. the individual or family gainfully employed with a college degree, Chicago is actually wonderful to live in.

Here are 25 reasons why Chicago is America's most underrated city:

The Cost of Rent: It’s no secret rent in New York and San Francisco costs a ton for borderline poverty conditions.  It is a secret that in Chicago rent is dirt cheap for extravagant buildings. Statistically median gross rent is $1086 in NY vs. $886 in Chicago, but the money goes significantly further.  Not only do renters not pay the brokers fee in Chicago, they can expect to find a range of options from houses in Lincoln Park to Condo buildings with pools, tennis courts and gyms.  There certainly are not Tumblr accounts dedicated to crazy rent prices in Chicago.>It's also cheaper to buy: The Legacy Building, one of the nicest and newest buildings on Millennium Park in Chicago, is priced at on average $600 per square foot.  The average for the new 432 Park Avenue building in New York is $6,000 per square foot.Don't think that it’s just a demand issue either.  Building in New York is significantly more difficult and expensive, with more onerous zoning laws, rent control, and union laws for hired workers.  Most people think they are getting what they pay for, in reality they are paying an enormous phantom tax as a result of the regulatory regime.  In Chicago, when prices rise, building increases.

Wikimedia Commons

Millenium Park

It's not just prices of real estate that are different, moving from Chicago to New York means your groceries prices rise 30% (and to add salt to that wound, there are fewer Trader Joes in New York despite the higher population), your utilities rise 47% and your health care costs rise 20%.In Chicago, when you leave your building, you’ll notice the streets are clean.  This is because there are alleys, so no garbage is left on the street ever.Chicago's layout makes sense.  It had the luxury of “resetting” in 1871 after a fire burnt everything down (17,500 buildings leaving 1/3 of the city homeless).  Daniel Burnham's 'The Plan of Chicago' provided a guiding vision.Burnham's goals included every citizen being walking distance from the park – today there are plenty – Grant Park, Millennium Park, Lincoln Park, Portage Park and Jefferson Park.  Chicago’s parks are bigger than New York’s even though they are located right in the heart of the city, and its largest one is significantly bigger (Lincoln Park is 50% larger than Central Park). Burnham also designed the roads to be wider after the fire, which included a widening of Michigan Avenue, Roosevelt Road and the creation of Wacker Drive.  This helps with increasing direct sunlight.Wider streets also help mitigate the crowding of the many large buildings.  Of the tallest 10 buildings in North America, Chicago has four (NY has five).  Of the tallest 20, Chicago has 7, New York has 6.  Of the tallest 40, Chicago has 12, New York has 11.  New York does have more tall buildings in general, but for Chicago’s population, it carries its weight.Those tall buildings are the home to a lot of companies, with jobs in industries such as Consulting, Banking, Venture Capital, Private Equity, Insurance, and a whole host of industries that actually “make things”.  But know that when you are out at night in Chicago, people don’t tend to care as much where you work or how much money you make.

Wikimedia

Oak Street Beach

Burnham also proposed a cultural center in the park that the city would be built around. Today this space includes the Field Museum, Art Institute, Adler Planetarium, the Shed Aquarium, and Soldier Field, home of the Bears.Speaking of Sports complexes, all of Chicago’s teams play within the city, and all are within 15 minutes of the Loop (Wrigley Field, United Center, Soldier Field, U.S. Cellular Field).Chicago has beautiful beaches, of 29 miles of beach in the city, all but four of which are public parkland.  From an office building on Michigan Avenue, you're no more than a few minutes’ walk from Oak Street Beach.You can also swim at these beaches.  Lake Michigan has crystal clear waters that can be visually confused for the Bahamas (although they are not as warm).From an office downtown, you also can be on a golf course within 15 minutes.  The Sydney Marovitz 9 hole course on the water is right across from Lincoln Park.  Chicago has a number of excellent public courses available.Chicago’s airports are also easily accessible from the city, with straight shots on the EL: 25 minutes from downtown for Midway, 45 for O’Hare.And with its convenient central location, you are a two hour flight from Colorado and New York, and only four hours from California.Chicago has relatively low taxes for a big city.  The sales tax is high at 9.25%, but there is no personal income tax in the city. The sales tax in New York works out to 8.875%, and there's a city income tax.Not only is the average commute shorter (35 minutes vs. 40 minutes), there are fewer people having to deal with this. REUTERS/Jim Young

Lollapalooza

Chicago is a culturally rich city whose rivers are only ever Green on purpose.  Beyond St. Patrick’s day there are a number of city festivals, both large like Lollapallooza and smaller like Christkindlmarket, a miniature Octoberfest in the heart of the loop in the winter.  Of course there are numerous actual Octoberfest celebrations as well.There is also a sizable theater scene and the famed Second City. And a huge restaurant scene that isn’t very expensive Chicago also has a fun yet unpretentious night scene.  If you want long lines and the “models and bottles” crowd, proceed to Paris Club or return to LA/New York/Miami.  If you’re in for music, late night bars and dancing then staples such as the Hangge-Uppe, Butch McGuires, or Stanley’s.  Perhaps the best thing about Chicagoans is their modesty.  Northwestern University President Schapiro, himself an east coast native and former President of Williams College, described it: “I love the civility, I love the humility, I love the respect, I love the friendliness, I love the lack of entitlement.” Speaking of Northwestern, Chicago has two excellent Universities with strong graduate schools as well; providing the city with a constant stream of new talent.  BONUS - Weird stat – Chicago is not the right place for everyone.  The two most popular names of deceased individuals in New York and Chicago are John and Mary.  While the average John lived a full 1.1 years longer in Chicago, the average Mary lived 1.1 years longer in New York.  John and Mary’s of the world, choose accordingly.  

SEE ALSO:  Read the original piece on why Chicago is so depressing >

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