Monday, September 2, 2013

One Crucial European Economic Indicator Continues To Get Less Ugly

The global financial markets are selling off thanks to weak Chinese economic data and concerns that the Federal Reserve could start scaling back its stimulative monetary policies.

Spain also completed a bond auction that was met with weak demand. This reminded some of the ugliness experienced during the height of the euro zone's debt crisis.

But, there was one somewhat encouraging economic report today: eurozone purchasing managers index (PMI).

The Flash, or preliminary, reading for June climbed to a 15-month high of 48.9, up from 47.7 in May.

While any reading below 50 signals contraction, the improving number is a sign that things are getting worse at a slower pace.

The manufacturing subcomponent improved to 48.7 from 48.3 and the services subcomponent improved to 48.6 from 47.2.

Here's some commentary from Markit's Chris Williamson:

“The flash PMI indicates that the Eurozone contracted again in June, rounding-off another weak quarter, but there are reassuring signs that the downturn is continuing to ease.

“The survey data suggest that GDP is likely to have shrunk by 0.2% in the second quarter, similar to the fall seen in the first three months of the year and extending the region’s recession into a record seventh successive quarter.

“Encouragingly, however, the rate of contraction has eased over the course of the second quarter, with the decline in June the smallest for 15 months. At this rate, the region could stabilise in the third quarter and return to growth in the fourth quarter.

“It is particularly welcome news that the rate of decline outside of France and Germany has slowed sharply in recent months, and is now the weakest for two years. The rate of contraction has also slowed sharply in France, while Germany is showing signs of faster, albeit still modest, growth.

“Euro area policymakers will no doubt be encouraged by these improving indicators, suggesting the ECB will see no need for any further action in the near term.”


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Sunday, September 1, 2013

GOLD MELTDOWN (GLD)


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Nikkei Slides After Bernanke Says Taper Could Begin This Year


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Rick Santelli Caught Contradicting Himself About Past Inflation Warnings

Earlier this morning, CNBC personality and noted monetary hawk Rick Santelli told Wall Street Journal reporter Jon Hilsenrath he never predicated his arguments against Fed easing on inflation fears.

Of course, the lack of accelerating inflation over the past few years is in part what's allowed the Fed to continue its bond buying program and keep interest rates low. 

Here's the exchange:

HILSENRATH: People have been saying for 3 or 4 years, 'Inflation inflation inflation!' Show me! Show me... 

SANTELLI: NO no no no no, that's not the issue. THE issue is, you're not going to have a lot of inflation showing up when you have no velocity. I've talked about commodity price volatility in the past, go back to the tape…I never said it was about inflation

But this "Santelli Exchange" segment from Oct. 2012 (via Zerohedge) certainly seems to suggest otherwise. In it he warns about how the seeds of Weimar were being sown by the Fed:

"To be nor not to be — of course I'm talking about inflation. But what's very interesting is, as I look up at gold — of course it's reversed off its highs — but today it hit a high of $1794.40. That's the highest intraday level for 2012, indeed it goes back to November last year when we traded over $1,800. But the issue is ,'To be nor not to be?' Is it inflation vacation or inflation gestation?…Let's consider a couple of things. Printing money — is it really the answer? ... If we just print a million dollars for every man woman and child in the country, and handed it to them, won't that fix everything? Because in order to really look at printing — I like to take everything to the extreme...Look at the Weimar Republic and their hyperinflation in the early '20s. It didn't happen overnight, I've ued the analogy, it's a lot like soybeans you plant em, you wait, conditions take some time, you need some sun you need some water, but ultimately things start to grow, and are we in that phase or not?"


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Bonds Getting Slammed On Heavy Volume After The Release Of The FOMC Statement


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The Mechanism That Holds Chinese Banks Together Is Falling Apart (FXI, EWH)


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EL-ERIAN: The Fed Better Be Right About The Economy


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