Monday, June 17, 2013

A 7-Point Answer To All The Buffett Haters Out There

warren buffettREUTERS/Kim Kyung Hoon

My friend and blogger colleague Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capital posted a 7-point takedown of the deification of Berkshire Hathaway. It is a tongue-in-cheek post ostensibly teaching the reader "7 Easy Steps to Invest like Warren Buffett" while it sardonically catalogs the most well-known contradictions between Warren's business style and his public statements.

As an unabashed fan of the Oracle and a firm believer that he is indeed "the Mozart of Investing", I've offered up a point-by-point defense.

Cullen's one of the sharpest knives in the draw, so it was not without trepidation that I embarked on this task. You'll find my refutations below for each of his (italicized) statements, wish me luck:

***

1)  Talk all sorts of smack about hedge funds but first spend the initial 10 years of your career running a hedge fund that charges 25% performance fees on top of 6% gains.

Buffett eventually found that there was a better vehicle to align his interests with his those of his shareholders and the types of long-term investments he wanted to make. And so he abandoned the hedge fund structure and spent the next few decades urging others to do the same. Why is learning and evolving one's business a negative? I spent my first ten professional years as a commission-based stockbroker charging 2.5% for buy and sell orders. And then when I realized how counterproductive a structure that was for my clients, I dashed my Series 7's head against the rocks and left it to drown in the river. Warren wised up, too. This is not a negative, it is a positive. 

2)  Amass enough capital (by charging massive fees) to buy multiple entire companies.  Do it in a distressed debt/activist strategy, but later on spin it off as “value investing”.

In Warren's youth, he was precocious and could even be vindictive, as he was in the case of the Berkshire acquisition. But are we to hold this against him four decades later? Is there any famous investor who can honestly say he is proud of every single moment of his career? Did not Mark Twain tell us that "a clear conscience is the sure sign of a bad memory"? If you're going to make an omelet, you've got to crack a couple of eggs. Buffett had certainly cracked his share.

3)  Use your insurance arm (from the company you bought in a distressed debt play) as a massive cash flow machine in which you’re essentially a leveraged covered call option writing operation.

Buffett has told us that his preferred holding period for an investment is "forever." Well, good luck finding a source of investment funds that aligns with this timeframe outside of the eternal cash flows of an insurance operation. And lo, doth my eyes deceive me or is that David Eimhorn's Greenlight Capital also in the reinsurance business, through a Cayman Islands holding company no less! And hark! Is that Third Point's Dan Loeb, also setting up a half-billion dollar reinsurance operation as well? They're all doing it because it's a good idea - given their investing style - to insulate their portfolios from the effects of un-sticky investor capital in times of turbulence.

4)  Tell the world that they should just buy index funds and then spend most of your time building a portfolio around individual equities.

Buffett (and Munger) have been explicitly clear on the index fund versus active management debate. They are dyed-in-the-wool believers that hard work and homework and good old fashioned common sense can combine to produce successful equity portfolios that beat The Street. Their own record proves that this can be done consistently over long stretches. But they've also made it clear that they don't believe a majority of investors have what it takes and so they, rightly, recommend that people who are ill-equipped simply keep their risks spread out and their transaction costs and taxes low. How could this not be the sanest possible advice they could give to the masses hanging on their every word? What should they tell the average investor - to speculate?

5)  Tell the world that fixed income is dangerous while maintaining billion dollar positions in bonds.

When you run insurance businesses, energy utilities and over fifty private companies with ongoing expense and cash flow obligations, using fixed income to meet the periodic costs involved isn't an option - it is a requirement.

6)  Constantly refer to derivatives as “time bombs” while maintaining billion dollar derivative positions.

Buffett's derivative activities are tied to the reinsurance work he does and are largely a bet on future, long-term prosperity. He is taking the other side of the trade, in most cases, against those who would make the catastrophe bet. These long-term bets on the world's future have been additive to returns and are not of the reckless variety of the time bomb contracts written by AIG and Wall Street last decade - bets which were unpayable by the underwriters as we eventually found out.

7)  Obtain a red phone to the US Treasury department so you can help them arrange a rescue plan that starts by rescuing your operation when it looks like the economy is collapsing.

The most powerful man in the financial markets and one of the world's wealthiest is always going to be listened to by the pols. This is the way of thew world. J Pierpont Morgan, when he occupied a similar position of influence one hundred years ago, was actually picking presidents and deciding elections over cigars on Madison Avenue. So if anything, Buffett's role, comparably speaking, is a benign and helpful one in times of distress. Don't hate the player, hate the game.

***

Thanks again to my friend Cullen for laying out this list, the exercise was a fun one to be sure.

What do you guys think?


View the original article here

CITI: The Stock Market Is Getting Dangerously Close To 'Euphoria' Territory

Sam Ro | May 28, 2013, 2:36 PM | 2,291 |

Citi's proprietary Panic/Euphoria model has a remarkable track record for predicting the direction of the stock market based on a variety of market sentiment measures.

When investor sentiment is euphoric, expected returns are low. And when investors are panicking, expected returns are high.

In his latest note to clients, Citi's Tobias Levkovich warns that sentiment is once again approaching euphoria.

"The Panic/Euphoria model was signaling last summer that there was a 96% chance of impressive gains by mid-2013 but it is now showing a meaningful spike towards the euphoria level which does not augur nearly as well for investors," wrote Levkovich.

That's not the only thing that's making Levkovich cautious these days.

"Moreover, lower intra-stock correlation also implies a more upbeat investment community focused on stock selection and less concerned about macro dynamics, thereby adding to the risk profile as economic, political or geopolitical events are no longer being considered by fund managers by virtue of their actions," he wrote.

Complacency and euphoria are the types of things that will exacerbate market volatility should a sell-off come.

Here's Levkovich's chart of the Panic/Euphoria model:

citi panic euphoriaCiti Research

Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
Follow Sam Ro on Twitter. Tags: Tobias Levkovich, Sentiment | Get Alerts for these topics »

To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.

View the original article here

New York Was One Of Just Two Big Cities Where Home Prices Actually Fell In March

In general, the housing market is recovering at a nice clip.

According to the latest Case-Shiller report, house prices in March had the biggest year-over-year gain since April, 2006.

But not all cities joined in the fun.

New York City was one of just two cities where there was actually a decline. The other was Minneapolis. You can't read too much into one-month blips, but the weakness in New York is consistent. As you can see on the one-year change chart, the gain of 2.6% makes it the worst-performing big city of the entire list. Ongoing weakness when it comes to Wall Street bonuses is surely a major factor.

newyorkhousingmarketCase-Shiller

Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
Follow Joe Weisenthal on Twitter.
Ask Joe A Question » Tags: New York City, Case-Shiller | Get Alerts for these topics »

To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.

View the original article here

Tesla Had A Monster Day, Surging 13% (TSLA)

To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.

View the original article here

A 10-Second Guide To What Traders Are Chatting About This Morning

Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus reveals the topics that he's talking about this morning.

Mostly it's pretty quiet, but the story is the restabilization in markets, and the rally across the world.

Good Morning – US Futures playing catch-up from the Monday holiday – with the SPX adding 70bp early.  Today, the DJIA is going for 20 straight positive Tuesdays.  Euro markets are stong, with the DAX adding over 1%, EU Fins jumping 2.5% as Italian and Spanish yields drop as Der Spiegel highlights the German about-face on Austerity.   The Nikkei rebounded 1.2% from a weak AM session as An auction of 20-year JGBs found a lukewarm reception ahead of Kuroda’s speech tonight and a BOJ meeting with market participants tomorrow (focusing on Bond Market Volatility?) .  Shanghai added 1.2% as New home sales in Shanghai rebounded and average prices fell last week, and the Aussie markets added small, but the Miners are lagging in the global rally.

The US 10YY is nearing a fresh 1Y high this AM, with yields nearing 2.05%.  Japan’s 10YY have resumed their climb, closing above 90bp for the first time in over a year.  The Yen initially was much weaker this AM, but has recovered some, and the DXY has failed upside 84 a few times in the overnight, and is nearing unchanged on the session.  That said, we have a bid under industrial commodities, with Copper the best performing metal, and the Crude Complex jumping.  Important to note Brent is 1% better than WTI right now, as headlines persist on Syria’s use of Chemical Weapons (McCain visited rebels this weekend) – and Iran moving long-range missile launchers in place ahead of their elections next month.   Attention also shifts to the possibility of OPEC cutting production quota at their meeting this Friday as US Shale is negatively impacting most African Grades..

Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
Follow Joe Weisenthal on Twitter.
Ask Joe A Question » Tags: Trader Chat | Get Alerts for these topics »

To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.

View the original article here

10 Things You Need To Know This Morning

South Africa miners strikeREUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

Members of the mining community march during a strike at Lonmin's Marikana platinum mine in Rustenburg, 100 km (62 miles) northwest of Johannesburg, May 15, 2013.

Good morning. Here's what you need to know. Markets in Asia were higher in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei 225 and the Shanghai Composite both advanced 1.2% while the Hong Kong Hang Seng rose 1.1%. European markets are higher across the board, with Italy leading the way, currently up 1.9%. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.Japanese government bond (JGB) yields continued to rise Tuesday after an auction of 20-year JGBs was met with weak demand. Yields on the 10-year JGB rose past 0.9% for the fifth time since April, extending the market's recent bout with price volatility.The South African rand continues to fall against the dollar this morning after first quarter GDP figures revealed 1.9% year-over-year growth, below the 2.2% consensus prediction. Manufacturing production fell 7.1% from the fourth quarter amid ongoing strikes by mining workers.French consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since July 2008 in May. The index fell to 79 from 83 after sliding from 83 from 85 in April. French Consumer Confidence Is One Of The Ugliest Charts We've Seen In A Long Time >A rumor that the government would suspend its social welfare program sparked bank runs across Brazil over the weekend as people swarmed branches of the state-run bank that disburses the benefits. In one region, several bank branches were destroyed after cash machines ran out of money.The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index advanced 10.9% on a year-over-year basis in March, exceeding expectations for a 9.3% rise and marking the biggest monthly gain since April 2006. At 10 AM, the Conference Board releases the results of its monthly consumer confidence survey. The survey's headline index is expected to rise to 71 from last month's 68.1 reading, confirming the results of a University of Michigan survey earlier this month, which suggested that consumer confidence was improving in May. Follow the release LIVE >Also out at 10 is the Richmond Fed's monthly survey of regional manufacturing conditions. The headline index is expected to rise to -4 from -6, indicating a continued worsening of conditions in May, yet at a slower pace of deterioration than in April.Rounding out the data releases at 10:30 is the release of the Dallas Fed's monthly survey of regional manufacturing activity. That index is expected to advance to -10 from -15.6, indicating a continued but slowing pace of contraction in the region. Despite the shortened week, there are a few big data releases coming up: GDP and initial jobless claims on Thursday, and personal income and spending and University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday. Follow all of the data LIVE on Business Insider >Please Note: Business Insider will never share your information with any other companies. You also have the ability to unsubscribe from these newsletters at any time simply by following the unsubscribe link located at the bottom of each email

Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
Follow Matthew Boesler on Twitter. Tags: 10 Things Before Opening Bell | Get Alerts for these topics »

To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.

View the original article here