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Monday, September 16, 2013
Apple Is Significantly Slashing Its iPhone Orders For The Rest Of The Year, Says Jefferies (AAPL)
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Surges
The Dallas Federal Reserve says its index surged to +6.5.
Economists estimated an improvement of just -1.5 compared with -10.5 in May.
The survey queries Texas manufacturers about the state's business climate.
The production index hit its highest reading in more than two years, while company outlook rose to a 16-month high.
Here's the full report:
Texas factory activity increased sharply in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose six points to 17.1, posting its highest reading in more than two years.
Notably stronger manufacturing activity was reflected in other survey measures as well. The new orders index climbed to 13 in June, a level not seen since July 2011. The capacity utilization index rose to a two-year high, jumping from 6.4 to 15.3. The shipments index advanced 12 points to 15.4.
Perceptions of broader business conditions rebounded strongly in June. The general business activity index rose to 6.5 after posting negative readings in April and May. The company outlook index soared 20 points to 13.3, reaching its highest level in 16 months.
Labor market indicators reflected steady labor demand and longer workweeks. The employment index was zero in June, suggesting no change in employment levels. The hours worked index moved up to 4.8 after four months in negative territory.
Price movements were mixed in June; input prices and wages rose while selling prices declined. The raw materials price index increased again this month, rising from 6.4 to 14.3. The wages and benefits index also strengthened, from 14 to 20, although the great majority of manufacturers continued to note no change in compensation costs. The finished goods price index remained negative for the third month in a row but moved up from -8.3 to -2.1. Looking ahead, 33 percent of respondents anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, while 25 percent expect higher finished goods prices.
Expectations regarding future business conditions improved significantly in June. The index of future general business activitysurged to 14.7 after negative readings in April and May. The index of future company outlook rose sharply as well, coming in at 21.8. Indexes for future manufacturing activity also moved up.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Data were collected June 11–19, and 95 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
This will be the first in what will be a closely watched blitz of economic data and Fed announcements set to come out this week.
10 Things You Need To Know This Morning
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The Declining Inflation Expectations Chart That Should Have Stock Investors Very Concerned
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Traders Are Starting To Worry That The S&P Has Been Living A Dream For Months
Traders are starting to wonder whether the S&P 500's breakout above 1575 (its 2007 high) was just a drill — a 'false breakout.'
The S&P hit the high in April, and there was talk of a false breakout then, but the index just kept climbing, and everyone forgot to be scared in the middle of the party.
Then, last Thursday the S&P started its dramatic descent back toward 1575. Now, in this morning's market culling, the index is at 1561.
"It was all a dream..."
All this is almost the equivalent of saying the market's been living a fantasy for the past couple of months, and now in the midst of all this crazy news from around the world, it's coming back to reality. Traders are starting to get worried.
Take Enis Taner over at Risk Reversal, for example. He wrote in a note this morning that he believes the market has been "running on fumes" for months. Maybe other traders have been preparing for the correction that could be coming (or is here) — either way, this spells volatility.
From Risk Reversal:
Considering how many traders were watching this breakout level 3 months ago, I am confident that a lot of long-term positioning was based around the breach of 1575 to the upside. A push back below could trigger a lot of long-term sell stops. As is customary with markets, this important long-term level coincides with a very jittery international market backdrop. Should be another volatile week, to say the least.
As the old trader saying goes, from failed moves come fast moves. If 1575 fails, buckle up.
That said, this all could be a technical blip, meaning the dream lives on.
Watch the plunge in the chart below (via Yahoo Finance).
Dow Off Over 200 — Rates Spiking — China Crashes
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