NanexNatural gas volume disappearing in January ahead of supply announcement.Thomson Reuters has been giving elite traders a 2 second advantage on the bi-monthly Consumer Confidence index, a key number for traders. In the past few days, that revelation has angered a lot of people on Wall Street.
A two second advantage may not seem like a lot of time to a human, but to a robot, with the right (read: fastest) connection to a stock exchange, it's plenty of time to spray out thousands of orders and (most likely) cancel them.
That impacts price. Suddenly, the market thinks that a given ETF, equity — whatever you're trading — is really in demand.
But it's not.
When it happens incredibly fast (like, in a second) it can be like a tsunami that rises and then disappears.
Until the correct price is found, what all of that does is simply create a mess — a sort of high speed chaos that can only be seen clearly in milliseconds but can send ripples throughout the market as the tsunami dies down.
$('.icon-tooltip').tooltip();Robert J. Shiller has predicted two crises, but his belief in the financial sector has not been shaken. The leading U.S. economist recently sat down with Credit Suisse to discuss the risks of today’s financial system and why he still believes in capitalism’s good side.
Credit Suisse: You were one of the only economists in the world to predict the end to both the housing and the dotcom bubbles. Still, your new book is something of a love letter to the financial sector. How do you reconcile the two?
Robert J. Shiller: The word “finance” comes from the Latin “finis” – objective or goal. That’s what innovations in the financial sector are for. They motivate people to work together, efficiently and constructively, toward a common goal. A major part of the progress made throughout history has been due to the innovative capacity of the financial world.
CS: For example?
RS: The invention of the corporation allowed clever minds to establish a company together on the basis of an idea. And the company can continue to exist after the original owners have left. The “limited liability” concept, which came a little later, guarantees that personal risk is limited to the share invested in a company. That is fundamental. If a person were liable with all of his assets, every individual share could mean ruin. As a consequence, there would be virtually no capital in the markets.
CS: Not all financial innovations have such a positive impact.
RS: When they’re first experimented with, many instruments are viewed with skepticism – including the above ideas of shared ownership in a corporation or limited liability. If the results were good, the instruments were quickly copied. That is the history of progress. Our financial instruments are now used around the world, which is one sign of their success.
CS: The Economist recently called you a Cassandra – someone who foresees disaster, but finds no one willing to listen – as well as a Pangloss, Voltaire’s radical optimist. There are many people today who are much more critical about the financial sector than you are.
RS: As Jesus said, “It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.” The history of criticizing finance is a long one. Most of the world’s religions value generosity as a human virtue. Finance, however, also recognizes the egotistical side of human nature. This presents potential for conflict.
CS: Is this the main cause of the current crisis?
RS: The crisis is the result of different factors. Worst of all was the widespread perception in the U.S. that housing prices could not fall. So there was no reason to worry about a speculative bubble, and the authorities and central banks did little. This is something that we can fix, and to some extent, have already done.
CS: In your opinion, have too many new regulations already been introduced?
RS: Regulation is difficult to quantify. The prevailing political climate could actually lead to the suppression of innovation in the financial system because of the fear of further crises – because we are no longer willing to take on risk. I think it’s important that governments not simply issue regulations on their own, but that businesses participate in the process, for example, in the development of regulations by professional associations. They tend to view the problems a great deal more concretely than the people in Congress do.
CS: What are the risks that you currently recognize in this area?
RS: The crisis has been going on for a long time now – it began six years ago. Many economies are still struggling today. Similar to the current crisis, the Great Depression in the 30s began with a financial crisis and – as absurd as it sounds – things did not improve until World War II, which acted as an economic stimulus. Many countries are currently caught up in their austerity policies and almost overdoing the cost cutting. We may well be experiencing an extended period of low growth. I’m also concerned that inequality will grow even more over the next few years.
CS: What are the signs of this?
RS: Median household income in the U.S. is already falling. That is a dramatic sign.
CS: You consider the social balance to be in danger?
RS: It is imperative that we remain an inclusive society, where every one of us has opportunity and a sense of belonging. Differences in wealth are better tolerated under those circumstances. A dramatic example: Joseph Stalin believed that he could use the anger of the simple farmers against the kulaks, the wealthier farmers, to his advantage. But the simple farmers did not want to shoot the kulaks. Why? Some of them were their friends. Society has to remain mixed. Everyone has to be included.
CS: You want to use financial instruments to contribute to a “good society,” a better world. That sounds, diplomatically speaking, rather bold.
RS: Not at all. During the last two years, many innovations in the sector have served to support the “good society.” Social impact bonds in the U.K., for example. Let’s take the Peterborough Prison in northern London, which has extremely high rate of recidivism. The non-profit organization Social Finance reached an agreement with the government for a payment of £6 million if recidivism declines to a clearly defined level within a certain period of time. Social Finance then issued a bond. Using the capital raised, measures were taken with the goal of reducing recidivism. If the goal is met, the £6 million will be distributed to investors. That is a private solution to a public problem. There are numerous other examples.
CS: Traditional theories of economics assume a rational, utility-maximizing person. One who is not necessarily interested in “good society.”
RS: Decades ago, the economist Kenneth E. Boulding showed how far removed we are from homo oeconomicus. People are much more dependent upon each other than the pure utility function would indicate. Generosity also seems to be an inborn trait, as Ernst Fehr at the University of Zurich has shown. People are generous and kind to people who they perceive as such. We want a society that reflects the golden rule: “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” Of course, people aren’t always good, but when generosity is fostered, they become better. Financial instruments can help with this, too.
CS: What is your own contribution to the “good society”?
RS: I have educated at least 3,000 finance students. I hope that they are doing their jobs well and responsibly. I have never preached “greed is good” like some colleagues. That existed even before Gordon Gecko, the prototypical representative of “Wall Street” in the film of the same name. I tell my students: “Follow your passion but be aware of your responsibilities in society.”
CS: You have been teaching at Yale University since the 80s. How have the students changed?
RS: I have the feeling that they have become more capitalistic. When I started, the students were radically anti-business, and held demonstrations. That has to some extent reemerged lately. When banks come on campus to recruit students, there are sometimes protests again.
CS:What advice do you give students?
I can only respond with a banality. They should be true to themselves and realize their dreams. I wrote books as a child – I enjoyed doing that. Daniel Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize, recently stopped by and talked about how difficult it was for him to write a book. It is a hobby for me. When I watch television, I am bored. When I write, I am happy. That is my niche in this world.
Interview has been edited and condensed.
The Financialist is a digital magazine presented by Credit Suisse that looks at the trends and ideas that drive markets, businesses and economies.
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Markets More: Bill Gross Bonds You Know Things Are Getting Real: Bill Gross Just Wrote His Second Note This Month All About The Future Of Bonds Joe Weisenthal Jun. 14, 2013, 12:10 PM 2,996 4 Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs");EmailShare on Tumblr
You know things are real in bond land, when Bond God Bill Gross writes his second letter in a month.
As interest rates spike, and people talk about a bond market bear market, the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time, the PIMCO chief just wrote up a short Q&A titled Which Way For Bonds: Mapping A Path Forward.
Q: Can you explain what is happening in markets now? Gross: In 1980, the Federal Reserve, led by Paul Volcker, tightened the quantitative noose to tame double-digit inflation, fueling an unprecedented tailwind for bond prices. Thirty years later we find ourselves at the other extreme, as central banks print money in the trillions of dollars to stimulate economic growth, and inflation is abnormally low. While we are not likely to see a repeat of that type of bull market any time soon, we also do not believe we are at the beginning of a bear market for bonds. Rather, what we’re seeing is the continuation – and acceleration, in some respects – of the de-levering process, a key distinction that may be getting lost in some of the noise over the past few weeks. The Fed, the Bank of England, and now the Bank of Japan have all committed to holding their easing stance until growth targets are hit. We don’t see the Fed raising rates in a meaningful way for at least the next few years.
That said, we believe caution is warranted not just for fixed income investors, but for investors in all risk assets. Central banks have reached a critical inflection point in which the negatives of their aggressive policies may be outweighing the positives and in fact hampering growth. Where their monetary repression has succeeded, however, is in forcing investors to take increasing amounts of risk, but for lower yields and more volatile returns. Q: When do you expect the Fed to begin to take its foot off the QE pedal? Are rising rates a concern? Gross: The Federal Reserve has cited an unemployment rate of 6.5% as its threshold for pulling back on monetary policy. At the same time, Chairman Bernanke wants to avoid the mistake of premature tightening, as occurred disastrously in the 1930s. While we agree with this reasoning, we are concerned by the growing downside of zero-based money and QE policies – among them a worrisome distortion in asset pricing, the misallocation of capital and ultimately a dis-incentivizing of risk taking by corporations and investors. The Fed shares these concerns as well, which is why some members are considering a reduction or tapering of purchases. From a technical perspective, the Fed may also be forced to taper its purchases to match the shrinking U.S. budget deficit. But there’s a difference between a mild reduction and a decision by the Fed to materially scale back its bond purchase program. The economy has yet to achieve escape velocity, and unemployment is still stubbornly high and structural in nature. So while we may see some tapering, possibly by the end of the year, we do not expect the Fed to remove the trough for some time or for this to signal a dramatic increase in rates. Rates will fluctuate over the shorter term, of course, and it’s our job as active managers to effectively position our clients’ portfolio if that occurs. This is something we have done for our investors for decades.
Q: How are you positioning Total Return to navigate this environment? Gross: While it’s natural to want to reach for higher returns, an investment strategy’s success depends on carefully weighing potential rewards against the long-term costs, using the insights you’ve gathered on the ground and on a macro level through rigorous analysis. Today, given the economic uncertainty and rich market valuations, we think that the fortitude to wait for more attractive opportunities is a valuable attribute. Our goal for the Total Return strategy is to enhance our dry powder, seek prudent alpha and reduce risk – not dramatically, but to average or slightly below-average levels. Fortunately, PIMCO has a wide array of tools at our disposal to accomplish that. So, among other things, we’re avoiding long durations, reducing credit risk away from economically vulnerable companies and sectors, managing volatility and increasing exposure to countries with higher-quality balance sheets such as the U.S., Brazil, Mexico and Australia. And we are seeking out and taking advantage of opportunities in the market. For example, we believe intermediate Treasuries are currently attractively priced at around 2%.
At the forefront, PIMCO’s first and most important objective is preserving our clients’ capital, as it has been since Total Return was launched more than a quarter-century ago. In a market environment such as the one we’re currently navigating, this risk management priority becomes even more essential. In the meantime, we believe our portfolios are well positioned for future opportunities. If “traditional” bond beta is likely to be subdued, as we are forecasting, there are still ways for a resourceful and experienced investment manager to generate alpha from less traditional sectors.
Q: With bond markets so uncertain, what steps can investors take to ensure they’re prudently pursuing their financial goals? Gross: It’s important for investors to remember the reasons they own bonds in the first place – namely for the potential for the preservation of capital, income and growth, relative steadiness and typically low to negative correlations with equities. These needs – which will only become more urgent as millions of baby boomers head to retirement over the next decade and a half – are long term, regardless of what markets are doing today. So fixed income should always have a place in a portfolio. Still, there are ways to navigate challenging markets without feeling stuck. One is to expand your investment universe by going global. Here at PIMCO we like to say that there is no “bond market,” but rather “a market of bonds.” So, you should prize flexibility in your fixed income manager or core bond strategy.
Finally, be patient. Times are challenging, to be sure, but PIMCO has been successfully investing through more than four decades of market and economic cycles, which gives us some perspective, as well as the confidence that we’re going to be around to fight for the next 40 years. We certainly hope our clients take some comfort in that.
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This is getting intense.
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