Saturday, October 26, 2013

ECB'S DRAGHI: We're Keeping Rates Low 'For An Extended Period Of Time'

euro FinViz

The bottom just fell out of the euro.

This is all happening as ECB president Mario Draghi speaks about his latest monetary policy decision.

"Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary," said Draghi in his introduction. "The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time."

This is "concrete forward guidance," said Morgan Stanley's Elga Bartsch.

Later in the press conference, Draghi said that the decision to provide forward guidance was a unanimous one.

Based on the market's reaction, it's pretty clear that the market wasn't expecting such a dovish tone.

Here are his full introductory comments:

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr. Rehn.

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Incoming information has confirmed our previous assessment. Underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. In keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, recent confidence indicators based on survey data have shown some further improvement from low levels. Our monetary policy stance is geared towards maintaining the degree of monetary accommodation warranted by the outlook for price stability and promoting stable money market conditions. It thereby provides support to a recovery in economic activity later in the year and in 2014. Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on the overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics. In the period ahead, we will monitor all incoming information on economic and monetary developments and assess any impact on the outlook for price stability.

Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP declined by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013, following a contraction of 0.6% in the last quarter of 2012. At the same time, labour market conditions remain weak. Recent developments in cyclical indicators, particularly those based on survey data, indicate some further improvement from low levels. Looking ahead to later in the year and to 2014, euro area export growth should benefit from a gradual recovery in global demand, while domestic demand should be supported by the accommodative monetary policy stance as well as the recent gains in real income owing to generally lower inflation. Furthermore, notwithstanding recent developments, the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation. This being said, the remaining necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and private sectors will continue to weigh on economic activity. Overall, euro area economic activity should stabilise and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace.

The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. The recent tightening of global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. Other downside risks include the possibility of weaker than expected domestic and global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.

As stated in previous months, annual inflation rates are expected to be subject to some volatility throughout the year owing particularly to base effects. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.6% in June 2013, up from 1.4% in May. This increase reflected an upward base effect relating to energy price developments twelve months earlier. However, underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued over the medium term, reflecting the broad-based weakness in aggregate demand and the modest pace of the recovery. Medium-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability.

The risks to the outlook for price developments are expected to be still broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating to stronger than expected increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher commodity prices, and downside risks stemming from weaker than expected economic activity.

Turning to the monetary analysis, recent data confirm the subdued monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics. Annual growth in broad money (M3) decreased in May to 2.9%, from 3.2% in April. Moreover, annual growth in M1 decreased to 8.4% in May, from 8.7% in April. The annual rate of change of loans to the private sector remained negative. While the annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained at 0.3% in May, broadly unchanged since the turn of the year, the annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) weakened further to -2.1% in May, from -1.9% in April. As in April, strong monthly net redemptions in May were concentrated in short-term loans, possibly reflecting reduced demand for working capital against the background of weak order books in early spring. More generally, weak loan dynamics continue to reflect primarily the current stage of the business cycle, heightened credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets.

Since the summer of 2012 substantial progress has been made in improving the funding situation of banks and, in particular, in strengthening the domestic deposit base in a number of stressed countries. This has contributed to reducing reliance on Eurosystem funding, as reflected in the ongoing repayments of the three-year longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs). In order to ensure an adequate transmission of monetary policy to the financing conditions in euro area countries, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets continues to decline further and that the resilience of banks is strengthened where needed. Further decisive steps for establishing a Banking Union will help to accomplish this objective. In particular, the future Single Supervisory Mechanism and a Single Resolution Mechanism are crucial elements for moving towards re-integrating the banking system and therefore require swift implementation.

To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture.

With regard to other economic policies, the Governing Council notes the initiatives taken by the European Council of 27-28 June 2013 in the areas of youth unemployment, investment and financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the European Council’s endorsement of the country-specific recommendations of the 2013 European semester. The Governing Council stresses that implementation of these recommendations is essential to contribute to a sustainable recovery in the euro area. Moreover, the new European governance framework for fiscal and economic policies should be applied in a steadfast manner and much more determined efforts should be pursued to carry forward structural reforms to foster growth and employment. In this respect, the Governing Council deems it particularly important to target competitiveness and adjustment capacities in labour and product markets. Finally, the Governing Council welcomes the setting-out of a number of steps towards the completion of the Banking Union as moves in the right direction, but also urges that they be implemented swiftly.

We are now at your disposal for questions.


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The Situation In Portugal Remains Volatile

Lisbon Portugal traders REUTERS/Jose Manuel Ribeiro

Traders monitor the screens at a bank in Lisbon July 3, 2013. Portugal's benchmark PSI20 equity index tumbles 6.4 percent in massive volumes, hitting a near eight-month low, as the country's political crisis fuels fears that Lisbon's plan to exit an international bailout could derail. Portuguese banks are the most hit, with Banco Espirito Santo sinking 10 percent and Banco Comercial Portugues dropping 12.9 percent.

European stock markets are in the green today, recovering some of yesterday's losses.

Leading the way is Portugal, which tanked yesterday after the country's Finance Minister unexpectedly resigned over a dispute about austerity.

"The political crisis that’s unfolding in Portugal is a reminder that staying the course on fiscal consolidation and structural reform crucially depends on the ‘buy in’ of the politicians and the population at large," said Morgan Stanley's Daniele Antonucci. ". A U-turn in policy might perhaps be averted – as the situation is such that there’s little alternative to the current path – but the newsflow surely has become more negative."

"The risk is that, regardless of whether new elections can be avoided, political mistakes or a weaker political commitment might well result in a slower pace of adjustment," he continued. "In turn, this could complicate the upcoming Troika review, with the official lenders struggling to continue to depict Portugal as a ‘good student’, and perhaps delaying future loan tranche disbursements."

Until we get more clarity, we can probably expect more up-and-down volatility.

Here's a look at Portugal's PSI 20 today via Bloomberg:


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MISS: ISM Services Index Falls And Misses Expectations

busy, hustle and bustle, moving, move, work, working, cook, cooking, waiter, deli, eisenberg's sandwich shop, eisenbergs, classic restaurant, old school new york, nyc, january 2012, bi, dng ">Daniel Goodman / Business Insider

The June reading of the ISM non-manufacturing (aka services) index is out and it's a miss.

The headline number fell to 52.2 in June from 53.7 in May.

Economists were looking for a reading of 54.0.

Here's a look at the sub-indices:

Business Activity Index at 51.7%New Orders Index at 50.8%Employment Index at 54.7%

From the report:

"The NMI™ registered 52.2 percent in June, 1.5 percentage points lower than the 53.7 percent registered in May. This indicates continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 51.7 percent, which is 4.8 percentage points lower than the 56.5 percent reported in May, reflecting growth for the 47th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 5.2 percentage points to 50.8 percent, and the Employment Index increased 4.6 percentage points to 54.7 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 11th consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 1.4 percentage points to 52.5 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in June when compared to May. According to the NMI™, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. Respondents' comments are mixed about business conditions depending upon the industry and company. The majority indicate that growth has been slow and incremental; however, it is still better year over year."

ism services ISM

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STOCKS RALLY: Here's What You Need To Know (DIA, SPY, QQQ)

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american flagREUTERS/Mike Blake

U.S. sailors unravel a huge American flag across the field during opening day ceremonies before the San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers in their MLB National League baseball game in San Diego, California, April 9, 2013.

It was a half-day in the stock market.

First, the scoreboard:

Dow: 14,988.5, +56.1, +0.3%S&P 500: 1,615.4, +1.3, +0.0%NASDAQ: 3,443.6, +10.2, +0.3%

And now, the top stories:

The U.S. stock markets opened in the red, then went straight up, but then slipped a bit into the 1:00 p.m. ET close.We got three big economic reports today.  First was the ADP employment survey, which showed that private companies added 188,000 jobs in June.  This was up from 134,000 in May.  It was also much better than the 150,000 expeted by economists. "The job market continues to gracefully navigate through the strongly blowing fiscal headwinds. Health Care Reform does not appear to be significantly hampering job growth, at least not so far," said Moody's Mark Zandi. "Job gains are broad based across industries and businesses of all sizes."Initial weekly jobless claims fell to 343,000 from 348,000 a week ago. This was a tad lower than the 345,000 expected by economists.  "Initial jobless claims continue their sub-350k readings, hinting that any near-term payroll weakness is temporary," tweeted Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna.The June ISM services index was a bit mixed.  The headline number unexpectedly fell to 52.2 in June from 53.7 in May.  This was worse than the 54.0 expected by economists.  But on the bright side, the employment sub-index climbed 4.6 points to 54.7.The U.S. markets will be closed for Independence Day tomorrow.  But we'll be back on Friday. That's when we'll get the big June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Don't Miss: JPMorgan Put Together The Ultimate Guide To The Market Right Now » Follow Closing Bell and never miss an update! Get updates in your Facebooknews feed.

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