Empire State Manufacturing Surges

Consensus was for no gain.

The May figure was -1.43.

The rest of the print was super ugly, especially the labor index, which was flat.

The June 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved modestly. The general business conditions index—the most comprehensive of the survey's measures—rose nine points to 7.8. Nevertheless, most other indicators in the survey fell. The new orders index slipped six points to -6.7, the shipments index fell twelve points to -11.8, and the unfilled orders index fell eight points to -14.5. The prices paid index held steady at 21.0, while the prices received index rose seven points to 11.3. Labor market conditions worsened, with the index for number of employees dropping to zero and the average workweek index retreating ten points to -11.3. Continuing the trend seen in the past few months, indexes for the six-month outlook declined, suggesting that optimism about future conditions was weakening further.

In a series of supplementary survey questions, manufacturers were asked to look back and assess the short-term and medium-term effects of Superstorm Sandy on their business. As in last November’s survey (conducted immediately after the storm), the vast majority of upstate firms said that they were essentially unaffected by the storm. However, firms in New York City, Long Island, and the Lower Hudson Valley reported that it took an average of more than two weeks after the storm for business to get back to normal, and more than a third of these firms said that the storm had adversely affected their overall business revenue during the seven months since Sandy.

After dipping into negative territory last month, the general business conditions index for June recovered some ground, rising nine points to 7.8—a sign that conditions had improved modestly. Roughly 29 percent reported that conditions had gotten better over the month, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened. However, while the general business conditions index was positive and higher than last month, many of the survey’s other indicators were negative and noticeably weaker. The new orders index fell six points to -6.7, and the shipments index fell twelve points to -11.8. The unfilled orders index dropped eight points to -14.5, and the delivery time index declined three points to -6.5. The inventories index fell three points to -11.3, extending the decline in inventories to a fourth consecutive month.

Labor Market Conditions Soften

The prices paid index was little changed at 21.0, pointing to a steady level of input price increases over the month. The prices received index climbed seven points to 11.3, indicating that selling price increases had picked up. Labor market conditions were weak: the index for number of employees fell six points to zero, indicating that employment levels were flat, and the average workweek index declined ten points to -11.3, a sign that hours worked fell modestly.

Six-Month Outlook Continues to Weaken

Hewing to the pattern of the past few months, indexes for the six-month outlook declined, suggesting that optimism about future conditions continued to wane. The future general business conditions index inched down to 25.0, the future new orders index fell nine points to 19.8, and the future shipments index fell five points to 20.2. The future prices paid index shot up sixteen points to 45.2, indicating that input price increases were expected to accelerate, while the future prices received index rose three points to 17.7. The index for expected number of employees retreated to 1.6, and the future average workweek index declined eleven points to -9.7. The capital expenditures index fell steeply, dropping twenty points to 3.2, and the technology spending index moved into negative territory for the first time since 2009, declining fifteen points to -3.2.

View the original article here

Homebuilder Confidence Surges (ITB, XHB)

The NAHB housing market index for June jumped to 52. This is the highest level since April 2006.

This beat expectations for a rise to 45, from 44 in May.

The eight point increase from May to June is the biggest one month gain since August and September of 2002.

A reading over 50 shows that more builders think sales conditions are good rather than poor.

What's more? All three sub-indices gained in June.

The index gauging current sales conditions climbed eight points to 56. The index measuring future sales expectations climbed from 52 in May to  61 in June — the highest level since March 2006. Finally, the index of prospective buyers traffic increased seven points to 40.

Investors track this index because it is a leading indicator for housing starts. "Today’s report is consistent with our forecast for a 29 percent increase in total housing starts this year, which would mark the first time since 2007 that starts have topped the 1 million mark," NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said in a press release.

In recent months it was reported that affordable mortgage rates were helping buyers. But mortgage rates have been rising and while these haven't impacted purchase applications, they have weighed on refinance applications. Today's report shows that homebuilders aren't fazed by the rise in mortgage rates.

The NAHB housing market index is a sentiment index in which respondents rate not just the housing market but also the economy in general.

The index draws on builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months. It also includes builders' expectations of traffic of prospective buyers.

View the original article here

The Worst Chart In The World

The pie chart is easily the worst way to convey information ever developed in the history of data visualization. 

Sure, there are other more cumbersome ways to articulate data. But none have the credibility nor the widespread use that the pie chart has. 

Here, I'll explain exactly what's wrong with the pie chart and exactly why you need to stop using them as soon as possible. 

First let's talk about why we use charts in the first place. 

Charts are a way to take information and make it more understandable.In general, the point of charts are to make it easier to compare different sets of data.The more information a chart is able to convey without increasing complexity, the better.

I'll show you how pie charts fail most of these criteria for a good chart. 

The "point" of a pie chart is to show the relationship of parts out of a whole. 

Let's see how bad they are at the one thing they're ostensibly designed to do. 

Take a look at these three pie charts.

Let's say that they represent the polling from a local election with five candidates at three different points A, B, an C during an election:

So, what can we learn from this information?

Since these are the shares of the votes that each candidate will get, it should be easy for the reader to figure out what, exactly is going on in this race. 

But it really isn't.

In the first race, is candidate 5 doing better than candidate 3?

Who did better between time A and time B, candidate 2 or candidate 4?

Who has the most momentum in the race?

If the point of a chart is to make information more easily understandable, how is this chart working for you?

Indeed, were I to just give you a table of the polling values, wouldn't that be much easier to understand the information at first glance than these pie charts?

But now, let's look at that exact same information — parts of a whole — articulated on a bar chart:

Look at how much clearer that is. 

We can see exactly what is going on with each candidate at every point in the race at first glance. 

This bar chart is a much more clear indicator of parts of the whole than a pie chart, even when that's technically the point of the pie chart. 

Now let's look at another shortcoming of a pie chart, one that has to do with the way people don't really understand circles

Here's a pie chart of the party breakdown of the European parliament:

Walter Hickey / BI

So our main question is, can we really compare the slices to figure out the distinctions in size between each and every  pie slice?

If we're just trying to learn that, yeah, EPP is bigger than S&D, then what's the point of the chart? I could have told you that with two number. 

No, the chart is only useful if we're able to compare each and every element within it. 

Walter Hickey / BI

At right are the individual slices taken out of context for the purpose of comparison.

Look at them, and see if you can figure out an ordering from largest to smallest. 

The reality is, humans aren't very good at comparing slices of a circle when it comes to size.

It's the reason you probably found trigonometry and radians a lot more difficult than you found basic rectangle geometry.

That's not a bad thing, but it is something to keep in mind when trying to articulate information in the most comprehensive and understandable way possible. 

Here's that very same graph in bar chart form:

Walter Hickey / BI

Notice how you can compare each and every party to each and every other party. 

You're just comparing the length of rectangles in order to understand what's going on. 

If you really wanted to, you could even change the left axis to percents to figure out the different allocations within parliament. However, now you're able to see how many seats each party holds, information that wasn't present on the initial pie chart. 

Now, let's look at how easily pie charts can be manipulated. 

Here's that same data as above, only on a 3D Pie Chart:

Walter Hickey / BI

People do this all the time, and that's because an angled 3D pie chart is an excellent way to lie to you. 

Looking at this chart, S&D — the red party — appears to be roughly even with EPP, the teal party.

But the reality is, that's because I've distorted you perspective to make it seem as if red is in fact bigger. 

This is so easy to do, and it's honestly a shame that Excel makes it possible to begin with. 

Walter Hickey / BI

At left you'll see another example of the shortcomings of the pie chart. 

The fact is, 10% of the men reading this will have no idea what we're talking about. 

The most elegant charts don't require data labeling.

You shouldn't need to have any extraneous numbers on your data in order to make your point.

If you do, you are using the wrong chart. 

Oftentimes, the pie chart is the wrong chart

So, let's review:

Whenever there is similarity in the information available, a pie chart is not the right chart to use.Whenever there are multiple (3 or more) different points of data, a pie chart is not the right chart to use.Pie charts are very easy to abuse. A pie chart is not the right chart to use if you need to label each percent.  Business Insider, data from City of Detroit

Before we look at a final critique of pie charts, let's acknowledge that there is something they're actually good at. 

The one single thing pie charts are good at is when you're comparing 2-3 different data points with very different amounts of information. 

That's it. 

And when you get down to it, if that's the only they're good for, their only real use is to let people know what a fraction looks like. 

The only point of the pie chart to the right is to inform people what 32 out of 100 looks like. 

Last week I made the comment that pie charts are the Nickelback of data visualization. That comment got a lot of circulation. 

But after thinking about it, there's a much more apt metaphor. 

Pie charts are the Aquaman of data visualization. 

Aquaman is really only good at one thing. Even so, other DC superheroes can often do Aquaman's job better than Aquaman. Superman can hold his breath underwater, Batman has his submarine. It's come to the point where if there's a sinking oil tanker, who do you really want to call? Aquaman? Or Superman?

You sort of always wonder why Aquaman was invited to the meeting in the first place. 

And when that one real chance for Aquaman or the pie chart comes around — maybe you need to talk to a fish or explain what 32% looks like on a circle — you're sort of left to wonder why you actually bothered having it around in the first place.

In short, stop using pie charts. They're not useful, they're too easy to screw up, and they don't accomplish the one thing you actually use charts for — to make information visually informative. Pie charts are Aquaman. 

So what should you do instead?

As Edward Tufte — a data scientist who has written extensively on the failure of the pie chart — tweeted:

Pie chart users deserve same suspicion+skepticism as those who mix up its/it's, there/their.To compare,use little table, sentence, not pies.

— Edward Tufte (@EdwardTufte) January 10, 2013

View the original article here

Markets Are Higher After Major Comeback In Japan

Good morning. It's the start of a big week.

This week in the US we'll see some important economic data, as well as get the latest from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. This week's Fed meeting is the most anticipated in quite some time, as everyone is wondering whether Bernanke will give any hints about a slowdown or "tapering" of Quantitative Easing.

In the meantime, markets are off to a good start for the bulls.

the sickly Japanese market actually went out on the highs, gaining 2.7%, after starting nearly 1% lower.

Europe is nicely higher across the board, with Germany rising 1.2%.

And US futures are in the green.

So far, so good.

View the original article here

Yes, At Some Point China Will Implode

Yes, Someday China Will Implode - Business InsiderFeaturedTrendingRecent Login Remember me I forgot username or password Login with Twitter Login with Facebook Login with LinkedIn Login with Google Register EventsBI IntelligenceTechFinancePoliticsStrategyLifeEntertainmentAll Tech Enterprise Science The Social Media Advertising Ecosystem Explained The iPhone's New Back Button Has The Former Design Director Of The New... Why This Whole 'Secretly Rating Men On Facebook' Thing Won't Last How To Become Invisible To The NSA's Domestic Spying Program How McCormick Got Its Electricity Use Down To Net Zero These US Cities Can't Hire Tech Workers Fast Enough 13 Enterprise Apps That Drive People Nuts Even Though They're Free 14 Tech Execs Who Could Probably Kick Your Butt In A Fight Is This Creepy Looking Animal The Jersey Devil? Updated Flood Maps Show How Vulnerable New York City Really Is Montana Conservationist Accused Of Declaring War On Wolves These Are The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane And Tropical Storm Names Finance Markets Your Money The Trailer For Martin Scorsese's 'Wolf Of Wall Street' Looks Sick —... A Finance Worker From Connecticut Was Just Crowned Miss USA Doug Kass Leaves Twitter, Blames 'Too Many Haters' George Soros' Older Brother Made An Engineering Breakthrough That... The Worst Chart In The World 11 Tapirs That Are Worried About The Taper 35 Years Of Failed Economic Forecasts In One Chart 10 Things You Need To Know This Morning The 10 Cheapest Cities In The World Here's Where You Can Buy A House With A Pool For $100,000 Or Less Dick's Sporting Goods 'Buy One Get One Free' Coupon Includes A Major Fail A Good Dad Is Worth $23,344 Politics Military & Defense Law & Order Canada Mayor Crisis Spreads: Montreal Mayor In Custody Former Romney Economic Adviser Writes New Paper In Defense Of The '1... Obama's Approval Rating Plummets, With A Stunning Drop Among Young People CBS' Bob Schieffer Destroys Edward Snowden In 90 Seconds Syrian Rebels Unleash Unprecedented 6-Ton Car Bomb, Killing 60 Microsoft Alienates Troops With The Always-Online Xbox One Guantánamo Prisoners Singing Akon's 'Locked Up' While Being Force Fed... Lawsuit Over CIA 'War Crimes' Probe Points To The Underbelly Of Secret Ops LAWSUIT: Utah Cops Shot 21-Year-Old Woman 'Assassination Style' How Flint, Michigan Became The Most Dangerous City In America Why 3 Of America's Most Dangerous Cities Are In Wealthy Connecticut This Man Is Either The World's Biggest Patent Troll Or A Champion Of... Strategy Careers Advertising Retail Small Business 12 Of The Shrewdest Business Maneuvers Of All Time Cheesecake Factory's 174 General Managers Are Given New BMWs Every 3 Years What 6 Executives Learned From Going On 'Undercover Boss' Booth And Columbia MBA Students Get The Highest Summer Pay What New Yorkers Earn For A Living 71% Of Millennials Want Their Co-Workers To Be A 'Second Family' What's It Like Working For No Money? INSTANT MBA: There Are Challenges Unique To Leadership Roles Web Ad Business About To Suffer Stunning Defeat At Hands Of 'A Volunteer... Siri Takes Another Beating From Microsoft In Latest Anti-iPad Commercial 'Million Moms' Are Upset About Kraft's Naked Salad Dressing Man Brian O'Kelley Is Really Enjoying All The Speculation That Yahoo May... Cheesecake Factory's 174 General Managers Are Given New BMWs Every 3 Years This 4-Person Startup Is Trying To Change Online Shopping As We Know It What 6 Executives Learned From Going On 'Undercover Boss' QUIZ: Who Do These Famous Frames Belong To? Life Transportation 12 American Bars To Drink At Before You Die QUIZ: Who Do These Famous Frames Belong To? China's Plan To Build The World's Tallest Skyscraper In 90 Days Is... 6 Amazing Recreated Photos Of Kids And Their Dads The First Test Flight Of The Brand New Airbus Jetliner Went Perfectly Flight From Egypt To New York Diverted To Scotland After Threatening... Entertainment Sports Miss Utah Falls Apart While Answering An Easy Question About Women... The First Trailer For 'The Wolf Of Wall Street' Is A Giant Gatsby-Sized... Britney Spears Releases New Squeaky-Clean Single 'Ooh La La' 'Man Of Steel' Flies Past The Competition With Record June Opening —... Brazilian Phenom Neymar Scored A Volleyed Goal From 20 Yards Away... Tony Parker Explained Why The Miami Heat Keep Giving Danny Green Wide... Report: Allen Iverson Allegedly Kidnapped His Own Children And Is... LeBron James Got Shut Down By A Chubby French Role Player Last Night Sections A-ZAdvertisingCareersEnterpriseEntertainmentFinanceMarketsLaw & OrderLifeMilitary & DefensePoliticsRetailScienceSmall BusinessSportsStrategyTechTransportationYour MoneyYour NewsListsSilicon Alley 100Digital 100Silicon Valley 100Clusterstock 50The Most Important ChartsThe Life 50More »Sponsored Sections10 Things To Know In Small Business Best New Small Businesses in AtlantaComing Up NextThe Future of BusinessInspired to StriveMonday Scouting ReportSmall Business, Big IdeasVideo RevolutionToolsLatestHiveJob ListingsDocument CenterAccount PreferencesRegisterVideoMobileFull ArchivesAbout BIAboutJobs at BIMastheadContactAdvertiseContributers FAQLegal Fine PrintFollow BINewslettersAlertsRSSTwitterFacebookLinkedInGoogle+CompaniesAuthorsCategories From To You have successfully emailed the post. Markets More: China Yes, At Some Point China Will Implode Henry Blodget Jun. 17, 2013, 11:16 AM 116 Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs");EmailShare on Tumblr REUTERS/Stringer China

If there has been one prediction made more than any other over the past couple of decades, it's that China's miraculous economy is headed for a fall. China bears have pointed to a long list of disasters-in-the-making, from questionable economic statistics to skyrocketing real-estate prices to ghost cities to centrally planned growth to corruption to pollution to civil unrest to debt. And yet, despite all of these concerns, China's economic machine has just kept chugging along.
But this time it's going to be different!, says an analyst from Fitch. This time, China really is screwed.
According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph, Fitch analyst Charlene Chu has concluded that China's growth is being fueled by a credit bubble that is unlike anything the modern world has ever seen.  This debt bubble is leading to massive overbuilding, Chu says. And when it finally bursts, as debt bubbles always do, China will be looking at a Japan-style depression and deflation. Given the number of China doom prophesies that have been made over the past two decades, you can be forgiven for rolling your eyes at this one and moving on. But Chu does cite some startling statistics, including the claim that China's debt-to-GDP ratio has quietly shot up to more than 200% and that each additional yuan borrowed is producing ever less growth. If there's any hard law of finance, it's that what can't go on forever won't. And borrowing at this rate relative to economic growth can't go on forever. That said, as always, the key question is "when?" At some point, China's economy is almost certainly going to go through the same sort of violent setbacks that every economy goes through, including the economy with which China's is compared--the U.S. economy. The growth of the U.S. economy over the past century has been nothing short of miraculous. But it has been anything but a smooth ride. Amidst its decades of expansion, the U.S. has gone through several decade-long periods of depression and stagnation, often following debt buildups just like the one China appears to be experiencing. In fact, the U.S. economy is still struggling to move past its latest debt-fueled bubble, the housing boom that turned to bust five years ago and took the country down with it. If China manages to avoid this boom-bust pattern forever, the country's resurgence really will be miraculous. And what is likely to send the Chinese economy into its own depression is exactly the sort of debt buildup that Chu describes. But booms often last much longer than most analysts think they can. And unless or until we know exactly when China's boom will end--which, if history is a guide, we won't know until after the fact--it's hard to make decisions based on this forecast. Yes, at some point, China's economy will crack. Alas, no one knows when. Aaron Task and I discussed this on Yahoo's Daily Ticker this morning > To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.600px wide (preview)400px wide (preview) 300px wide (preview) Alerts Newsletter URL Recommended For You Meet The Top Graduates Of America's Finest Military Academy   Meet The Top Graduates Of America's Finest Military Academy   More: China Get Alerts for these topics »

Henry Blodget $('.icon-tooltip').tooltip(); HOT: STEVEN SPIELBERG: The Movie Industry Is About To Implode Advertisement:Join The Discussion OR Login With Facebook Login With Twitter Login With Google Submit the comment for Insider Status Comments Apply To Be An "Insider" » Insiders0All Comments0 Loading Yes, At Some Point China Will Implode Yes, At Some Point China Will Implode

But the key question is... when?

Get Markets Emails & AlertsLearn More »IndustryAccountingAirlines/AviationAlternative Dispute ResolutionAlternative MedicineAnimationApparel & FashionArchitecture & PlanningArts and CraftsAutomotiveAviation & AerospaceBankingBiotechnologyBroadcast MediaBuilding MaterialsBusiness Supplies and EquipmentCapital MarketsChemicalsCivic & Social OrganizationCivil EngineeringCommercial Real EstateComputer & Network SecurityComputer GamesComputer HardwareComputer NetworkingComputer SoftwareConstructionConsumer ElectronicsConsumer GoodsConsumer ServicesCosmeticsDairyDefense & SpaceDesignEducation ManagementE-LearningElectrical/Electronic ManufacturingEntertainmentEnvironmental ServicesEvents ServicesExecutive OfficeFacilities ServicesFarmingFinancial ServicesFine ArtFisheryFood & BeveragesFood ProductionFund-RaisingFurnitureGambling & CasinosGlass, Ceramics & ConcreteGovernment AdministrationGovernment RelationsGraphic DesignHealth, Wellness and FitnessHigher EducationHospital & Health CareHospitalityHuman ResourcesImport and ExportIndividual & Family ServicesIndustrial AutomationInformation ServicesInformation Technology and ServicesInsuranceInternational AffairsInternational Trade and DevelopmentInternetInvestment BankingInvestment ManagementJudiciaryLaw EnforcementLaw PracticeLegal ServicesLegislative OfficeLeisure, Travel & TourismLibrariesLogistics and Supply ChainLuxury Goods & JewelryMachineryManagement ConsultingMaritimeMarketing and AdvertisingMarket ResearchMechanical or Industrial EngineeringMedia ProductionMedical DevicesMedical PracticeMental Health CareMilitaryMining & MetalsMotion Pictures and FilmMuseums and InstitutionsMusicNanotechnologyNewspapersNonprofit Organization ManagementOil & EnergyOnline MediaOutsourcing/OffshoringPackage/Freight DeliveryPackaging and ContainersPaper & Forest ProductsPerforming ArtsPharmaceuticalsPhilanthropyPhotographyPlasticsPolitical OrganizationPrimary/Secondary EducationPrintingProfessional Training & CoachingProgram DevelopmentPublic PolicyPublic Relations and CommunicationsPublic SafetyPublishingRailroad ManufactureRanchingReal EstateRecreational Facilities and ServicesReligious InstitutionsRenewables & EnvironmentResearchRestaurantsRetailSecurity and InvestigationsSemiconductorsShipbuildingSporting GoodsSportsStaffing and RecruitingSupermarketsTelecommunicationsTextilesThink TanksTobaccoTranslation and LocalizationTransportation/Trucking/RailroadUtilitiesVenture Capital & Private EquityVeterinaryWarehousingWholesaleWine and SpiritsWirelessWriting and EditingBusiness Insider SelectMoney Game Select10 Things Before the Opening BellMoney Game Chart Of The DayMonday Scouting ReportMoreFeaturedBusiness Insider SelectTechnologySAI SelectMobile InsightsScience SelectAdvertising SelectAdvertising: The BriefSocial Media InsightsFinanceFinancial Advisor InsightsClusterstock SelectMoney Game SelectYour Money SelectSmart InvestorMonday Scouting ReportLifestyleThe Wire SelectThe Life SelectSports Page SelectGetting There SelectManagementRetail SelectBreaking NewsWar Room SelectEnterprise SelectCareers SelectInstant MBAMarketing MondaysPolitics and MilitaryPolitics SelectMilitary SelectLaw & Order SelectTop 10 Things & ListsLists Select10 Things In Tech You Need To Know10 Things Before the Opening BellClosing BellCharts of the DaySAI Chart Of The DayMoney Game Chart Of The DaySports Page Chart Of The DayAdvertisementYour Money NASDAQ Composite 3,464 +40.73 (+1.19%) S&P 500 1,646 +18.77 (+1.154%) NYSE Composite 9,369 +105.48 (+1.139%) LinkedIn Login Hot: LinkedIn In your network

The Social Media Advertising Ecosystem Explained

Apple's New iPhone Software: Redesigned, With A Lot Of Features Copied From Android

Why Local-Mobile Marketing Is Exploding

Login with LinkedIn to see what your friends are reading on Business Insider.
Login with LinkedIn

No articles have recently been shared in your network.

More »

Welcome, !You are logged into FacebookSocial: Your Activity|These articles have been shared on your timeline. You can remove them here:OptionsNotify me when a story is shared.YesNo Welcome, ! You are logged in with Google Social: Your Activity| These articles have been added to your Google activity log. You can remove them here: Options Notify me when a story is shared. Yes No The Future Of Mobile

Why Mobile Payments Are Poised For TakeoffHere Are The Major Players In Mobile AdvertisingWhy Local-Mobile Marketing Is ExplodingTrendingAdvertisementIn partnership with Find A JobTech JobsMedia JobsFinance JobsC-Level JobsDesign JobsSales JobsSee All JobsThanks to our partners * Copyright © 2013 Business Insider, Inc. All rights reserved. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Disclaimer Commerce Policy Powered by MongoDB Stock quotes by YCharts Ad Serving by 24/7 Open AdStream Made in NYC

View the original article here