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Kit Juckes, a currency analyst at Societe Generale, warns of what's about to come:
Brace yourselves, a huge week for market starts in a few hours' time with Chinese manufacturing PMIs. Policy meetings galore and a payroll number to boot. Fireworks are a given, even without minor considerations like the 4th of July!
Indeed, the first of every month is PMI Day, and starting Sunday evening, we'll be covering regional manufacturing reports as they come out (first from Asian countries, then from Europe early Monday morning, and then in North America).
And that's just the beginning: We have plenty of labor data coming up this week (as well as other data) which will culminate in this Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. Given the focus on whether the Fed is ready to pull back from its easing at all, Friday's report will be given an extraordinary amount of scrutiny.
Juckes, meanwhile, summarizes the big discussion still surrounding the Fed, and whether Bernanke made a mistake recently by coming off too eager to tighten.
The weekend press has seen a caravanserai of commentators question either the markets' understanding of what Ben said, or Ben's understanding of markets, or both. Gavyn Davies, Paul Krugman, Phillip Coggan, the Guardian, the FT, and more. The basic line is that markets over-reacted and the Fed needs to be careful. And despite one of the aforementioned having a Nobel prize in economics, I mostly disagree with the interpretation. I may only be a fool on a hill, but if markets go a bit crazy when the Fed merely invites us to imagine what might happen if they stop buying bonds, I think that is rock solid evidence of over-correlated positions. The Fed is right to try and let some air out of the balloon. Back off now, and we'll really be in trouble.
Anyway, tune in Sunday evening, when our Sam Ro begins our wall-to-wall coverage of PMI day.
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