Showing posts with label Massively. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Massively. Show all posts

Friday, July 19, 2013

Chinese Trade Numbers Come In Massively Below Forecasts

China on Saturday reported a sharp slowdown in exports in May compared to the previous month while imports unexpectedly dropped, as the world's second largest economy grapples with slowing growth and sluggish overseas demand.

Overseas shipments rose just one percent to $182.8 billion last month, far lower than 14.7 percent recorded in April, customs authorities said in a statement.

It also missed a medium forecast of 5.6 percent expansion in a Dow Jones Newswires' poll of economists.

Imports dropped 0.3 percent to $162.3 billion, said the statement, down from a rise of 16.8 percent in April and well below the economists' median forecast of a five percent increase.

Trade surplus stood at $20.4 billion last month, it said, widening marginally from the previous month.

The disappointing performance was due to "a slowdown in the domestic economy, sluggish foreign demand, companies' high costs, the appreciation in the yuan's real value and a worsening trade environment", customs said.

It was also a result of a crackdown on misreporting by importers and exporters, it added. They may have overstated their business to seek to evade Chinese government controls on capital movements and channel funds into the country, he said.

Two-way trade between Hong Kong and the Futian Bonded Area, in the nearby Chinese city of Shenzhen, soared by "an extremely abnormal rate" of six times in the first quarter of the year, state broadcaster China Central Television reported Saturday.

A truck carrying the same batch of electronic products crossed the border 54 times in 11 days in April, each time logged onto the customs' record as a new shipment, it said.

The world's second-largest economy registered 7.8 percent growth in 2012, its slowest rate in 13 years.

The government in April announced a surprisingly weak expansion rate of 7.7 percent for the first quarter, dashing hopes that growth was poised to accelerate in 2013 after showing strength at the end of last year.

More recent economic indicators also failed to improve the outlook, with manufacturing activities in the country coming in at a contracting eight-month low of 49.2, according to a survey by HSBC this week. A figure below 50 indicates a contraction.

"Growth in exports to all major developed economies slowed... suggesting a recovery in the global economy is yet to be strong," Tang Jianwei, a Shanghai-based economist with the Bank of Communications, told AFP.

"Domestic demand has continued to be slack, affecting imports of commodities and raw materials."

He also noted that rising trade disputes between China and major trade partners have had a "rather big negative impact" on the country's imports and exports.

On Tuesday the European Commission imposed anti-dumping duties on imports of Chinese solar panels. Beijing responded immediately with an announcement of an anti-dumping probe into European wine, widening a row that has already involved telecom equipment, chemicals and seamless pipes.

The world's top exporter is also embroiled in trade disputes concerning other products with countries including the United States and Japan.

ANZ Bank analysts said the prospects for China's exports looked "grim" due to trade frictions and a strong Chinese currency, which has gained almost 20 percent against the yen this year.

"We believe China's loss of competitiveness relatively to ASEAN and Japan will gradually show up in China's export data in the following months, which will have dire consequences to China's already weak job markets," said Liu Ligang and Zhou Hao in a research note.

But Tang said the monthly change in trade data is unlikely to prompt the government to take any immediate measures.

"The Chinese leadership is much more tolerant of slower economic growth than in the past. They want to focus on reforms," he said.

Chinese leaders have said expansion will slow in the next stage of the nation's development from the near-double-digit yearly rises of recent decades, as they try to retool the economy to emphasise consumer demand as the key growth driver, rather than investment and exports.

The government has set its economic growth target for this year at 7.5 percent.


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Monday, July 15, 2013

CBO: The Deficit Has Shrunk Massively Over The Past Year

The federal budget deficit has fallen $220 billion in a year-over-year period, according to the latest monthly budget estimate from the Congressional Budget Office released Friday.

According to the CBO, the federal government has run a budget deficit of $627 billion over the first eight months of the fiscal year. That's almost $220 billion less than the same period — May through October — of 2012.

The CBO has not changed its overall deficit forecast, which is still projected to remain at $642 billion this year. That estimate, which came in May, was significantly down from an $845 billion projection in February.

The CBO says that the falling deficits are due to federal revenues rising by 15 percent. Meanwhile, federal spending has seen an increase of less than 1 percent. One of the main drivers of the increase in revenues is a 16 percent hike in individual income and payroll taxes — including a 10 percent increase in payroll taxes, which coincided with the expiration of the payroll tax cut in January.

The report comes at a time when there is renewed debate over fiscal austerity in the United States. The liberal Center for American Progress released a report Thursday calling for a reset to the "entire fiscal debate."

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Monday, June 10, 2013

In One Chart, Here's How Investors Are Massively Giving Up On Commodities

One of the big themes of the year has been the sell off in commodities.

Gold, of course, has had a rough year. But so too have industrial commodities like copper.

Whereas past commodity downturns have been closely associated with declines in risk assets, there's a sense this time of the "supercycle" coming to an end.

And indeed while U.S. equities remain within a hair of all-time highs, and inflows into stocks spike, there's been a big decrease in money going into commodity funds.

This chart from Jefferies tells the story:

Commodity funds continued to experience significant net outflow. The latest amount of net outflow stood at a net US$2.1bn. Recent 15 consecutive weekly outflows totalled a net US$23bn. YTD net withdrawals cumulated to U$24bn. Commodity funds saw net inflows of US$17bn for the full year in 2012. This is the fourth yearly inflow while the total amount of injections in 2012 topped the four-year period.

commodity outflowsJefferies

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